Climate warming accelerates maize phenology and reduces water requirements and yields in south-eastern Kazakhstan

[thumbnail of Open Access]
Preview
Text (Open Access)
- Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Please see our End User Agreement.

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email

Duisebek, B., Shahgedanova, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2320-3885, Wade, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350, Ragab, R., Saidaliyeva, Z. and Kasatkin, N. (2026) Climate warming accelerates maize phenology and reduces water requirements and yields in south-eastern Kazakhstan. Agricultural Water Management, 329. 110343. ISSN 0378-3774 doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110343

Abstract/Summary

This study assesses the impacts of climate change on maize water requirements and yields in south-eastern Kazakhstan, a semi-arid region dependent on meltwater from the Tien Shan Mountains for irrigation. The region is experiencing significant warming, projected to continue, leading to cryosphere degradation and reduced meltwater availability. Using field data collected between 2016 and 2019, two crop–water models (AquaCrop and SALTMED) were calibrated and validated to simulate maize growth, water demand, and yield at a farm located in the Tien Shan foothills under future climate scenarios. Simulations were driven by downscaled and bias-corrected outputs from four Global Circulation Models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for 2020–2049, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. Results show that continued warming will shorten the maize growing season by 36–38 days (RCP4.5) and 42–45 days (RCP8.5), reducing crop water requirements by 11–15% (AquaCrop) and 16–24% (SALTMED) by 2100 relative to the 1976–2005 baseline. AquaCrop projects a 10–12% yield reduction by 2100, with statistically significant declines by mid-century under both scenarios. SALTMED projects a 7–8% reduction by 2100, with significance emerging in the late century under RCP4.5 and mid-century under RCP8.5. These changes are primarily driven by temperatures exceeding maize’s physiological optimum. The findings align with global evidence of accelerated phenology and reduced maize productivity under climate warming. Adopting efficient irrigation systems, adjusting sowing dates, and selecting shorter-maturing cultivars could help align water demand with peak rainfall and runoff, sustaining yields under declining meltwater availability.

Altmetric Badge

Dimensions Badge

Item Type Article
URI https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/129313
Identification Number/DOI 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110343
Refereed Yes
Divisions Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Uncontrolled Keywords Crop-water modelling, AquaCrop, SALTMED, Irrigation, Climate change, Adaptation, Tien Shan, Central Asia
Publisher Elsevier
Download/View statistics View download statistics for this item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record