Global biogenic isoprene emissions modulated by intensifying warm temperature extremes

Nyasulu, M., Rajasekar, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1917-0494, Yeboah, E. and Magara, G. (2026) Global biogenic isoprene emissions modulated by intensifying warm temperature extremes. Applied Geochemistry, 204. 106829. ISSN 1872-9134 doi: 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2026.106829

Abstract/Summary

Biogenic isoprene, the most abundant non-methane volatile organic compound, plays a critical role in air quality and climate. While its emissions are known to be temperature-dependent, the specific causal link to the intensification of warm temperature extremes observed in recent decades remains understudied. This study provides causal evidence connecting the rising intensity of warm temperature extremes to trends in biogenic isoprene emissions from 2000 to 2019. We integrated high-resolution CAMS-GLOB-BIOv3.1 emission data with ERA5 reanalysis products and applied the Information Flow (IF) framework to quantify the causal influence of extreme temperature on isoprene emission trends. Our results reveal a significant increase in isoprene emissions (>1.2 Tg yr− 1 ) in tropical hotspots, which were significantly correlated with the intensity of extreme temperature (r > 0.8, p < 0.05). Importantly, causal analysis quantified a persistent, unidirectional IF from extreme temperatures to isoprene emissions, while the reverse pathway was negligible. This establishes extreme temperature as among the drivers of rising biogenic isoprene emissions, revealing a critical positive climate feedback loop under warming climate extremes. These findings highlight the need to incorporate extreme temperature–driven biogenic isoprene emission feedbacks into climate and air quality models to improve atmospheric composition and inform effective mitigation strategies for public health and climate stability.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/129680
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.apgeochem.2026.106829
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Publisher	Elsevier
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