Chapter 5: Land, Nature, and Food

Bullock, J., Sailley, S., Moorcroft, M., Senapathi, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8883-1583, Duflied, S., Wybrow, J., Wade, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350, Dominguez-Almela, V., De Oliveira, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6066-5827, Tibbett, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0143-2190, Wyver, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8661-0859, Bishop, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2114-230X, Breeze, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8929-8354 and Garratt, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0196-6013 (2026) Chapter 5: Land, Nature, and Food. In: The Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment – Independent Assessment (CCRA4-IA) Technical Report. Met Office.

Abstract/Summary

Land, Nature, and Food encompass our natural environment in all its diversity above and below ground, in freshwater and in the seas surrounding the coastline. This chapter considers the impact of climate change on farmed landscapes, seascapes, as well as natural and semi-natural ecosystems. These systems support biodiversity, interact with agriculture and fisheries, and support the food industry and UK food security. This chapter considers both long term climate change and extreme weather events, which pose risks to land, food and nature systems. Extreme weather events are causing damage to natural and farmed ecosystems (N1 – N8). The impacts are exacerbated by poor land and water management and a lack of biodiversity protection. Risks are expected to increase by the end of the century with critical impacts on the integrity of ecosystems. Climate change risks to terrestrial, marine and coastal ecosystems are major (N1 – N8). Species’ survival is threatened now and in the future. Climate change alters the ranges they can occupy and shifts the lifecycles of interacting species. For example, flowering times are becoming earlier, while pollinators are not appearing at the same time. This reduces plant reproduction and food availability for insects, which in turn affects species higher up the food chain. This mismatch in the timing of events is relevant for all ecosystems. Recent evidence supports an elevated urgency for climate risks to land, food and nature. Evidence has improved for freshwater (N2), marine (N3) and soil (N4) systems. Risks to terrestrial ecosystems (N1), food (N10), fisheries, aquaculture and farming (N6, N7) were already known, but the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, particularly those happening outside of expected seasons, have made the situation more precarious over the past five years. Extreme weather events have already led to severe losses in crop harvest, heat stress for livestock, and reduction in forage yields (N6). Recent years have seen records for heatwaves in summer in 2022, flooding in 2023, the wettest autumn/winter in 2023/24 and the driest spring/summer in 2025. This has reduced combinable crop yields in each cycle by 20-33% compared to the previous average, plus large-scale field vegetable losses and forage crop yield reductions of up to 60%. Droughts are projected to reduce the UK land surface classified as ‘high quality farmland’ from an average of 38% (1961 to 1990) to 11% by 2050. There are minimal opportunities for agriculture and fisheries (N9) and a lack of opportunities for species and ecosystems (N1) arising from climate change. Although modelling suggest that the UK might be suitable for growing novel crops like soybean, this does not stand up to scrutiny. Novel species may be impacted by the same extreme weather, soil degradation, and loss of pollinators already threatening existing crops. Climate change risks to these interacting elements are severe and therefore new crops are no more viable than existing ones; although should a harvest be successful the value of the crop may well have a premium. The reduction of land area suitable for farming (because of climate change) creates further pressures, and displacement of existing crops by new alternatives simply shifts the pressure points in UK’s food system. Similarly, shifting species ranges, food chain mismatches, and rising pest and disease risks (N7) eliminate potential benefits for fisheries or wildlife, as incoming species often displace natives, disrupting ecosystems and reducing resilience. Interactions between species, ecosystems, and food systems, plus factors outside of climate change, lead to increased severity of risk. The natural world operates across borders and is shaped by global trade and environmental change. This means that climate impacts on one ecosystem can trigger cascading effects across others, leading to broader food system shocks. Thus, risks to ecosystems, land and food cannot be understood in isolation. Climate change related risks disproportionally affect vulnerable populations. Vulnerability is usually associated with the interactions from external hazards, whether that is ecosystem pollution affecting nature (N1 – N8) or poverty affecting human populations (N10). Vulnerable populations, both human and species, are less able to adapt or mitigate the impact of climate change since their ability to respond to external system shocks is already compromised. This chapter highlights that more action and further investigation are needed across terrestrial, marine and coastal ecosystems to protect biodiversity in land, coastal and marine, natural and farmed landscapes. Extreme weather events are increasingly threatening the survival of fresh and saltwater environments, key habitats such as peatlands and woodlands, and the productivity of farmed land and seas. • Risks are already having adverse impacts in the present-day, and these are projected to significantly escalate by the middle and end of the century. Major disruption to biodiversity, ecosystem functionality and production yield, quality and viability of crops, livestock and fish is expected. • Natural carbon stores in the main habitats that can sequester carbon, such as peatlands, saltmarsh and woodlands, are likely to decrease due to climate change. Recent evidence increases confidence that this is also the case for oceans. • Climate change poses a major and growing threat to UK food security. It can disrupt crop, livestock, and fishery production through extreme weather, drought, and flooding, amplifying other pressures across the food system. • Climate-driven risks interact with global supply chain dependencies for key inputs, processing, and distribution. This further undermines the stability and resilience of UK food supplies, causing food price inflation which makes a healthy diet less affordable, particularly for vulnerable populations. • Southern England is particularly at risk from climate change, impacting crops, livestock, and the functional biodiversity needed to support their production. • Opportunities from climate change for farming ecosystems are minimal. Although some projections indicate that new species of crops could be cultivated in the UK in warmer climates, the recent reality evidenced by increased frequency of extreme weather events means that new crops are just as vulnerable as those currently produced in the UK. • There is a lack of opportunities for species and ecosystems, since the expansion of any species’ ecological niche comes at the cost of others losing their range or habitat. The interconnectedness of the natural world precludes opportunities, as climate change will limit dispersal, contract and fragment habitats, and break down essential interactions among species. • Evidence gaps exist for the devolved nations, although the picture for the whole of the UK is largely applicable to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Adaptation strategies developed to date are insufficient to drive the More action needed and Critical action needed to support Land, Nature, and Food.

Item Type	Book or Report Section
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/130803
Refereed	No
Divisions	Life Sciences > School of Biological Sciences > Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Department of Sustainable Land Management > Centre for Agri-environmental Research (CAER)
Publisher	Met Office
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