A two-locus forensic match probability for subdivided populationsAyres, K. L. (2000) A two-locus forensic match probability for subdivided populations. Genetica, 108 (2). pp. 137-143. ISSN 1573-6857 Full text not archived in this repository. It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1023/A:1004152931349 Abstract/SummaryA two-locus match probability is presented that incorporates the effects of within-subpopulation inbreeding (consanguinity) in addition to population subdivision. The usual practice of calculating multi-locus match probabilities as the product of single-locus probabilities assumes independence between loci. There are a number of population genetics phenomena that can violate this assumption: in addition to consanguinity, which increases homozygosity at all loci simultaneously, gametic disequilibrium will introduce dependence into DNA profiles. However, in forensics the latter problem is usually addressed in part by the careful choice of unlinked loci. Hence, as is conventional, we assume gametic equilibrium here, and focus instead on between-locus dependence due to consanguinity. The resulting match probability formulae are an extension of existing methods in the literature, and are shown to be more conservative than these methods in the case of double homozygote matches. For two-locus profiles involving one or more heterozygous genotypes, results are similar to, or smaller than, the existing approaches.
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