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Understanding distributions of chess performances

Regan, K. W., Macieja, B. and Haworth, G. ORCID: (2012) Understanding distributions of chess performances. In: Advances in Computer Games. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 7168. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 230-243.

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-31866-5_20


This paper presents evidence for several features of the population of chess players, and the distribution of their performances measured in terms of Elo ratings and by computer analysis of moves. Evidence that ratings have remained stable since the inception of the Elo system in the 1970’s is given in several forms: by showing that the population of strong players fits a simple logistic-curve model without inflation, by plotting players’ average error against the FIDE category of tournaments over time, and by skill parameters from a model that employs computer analysis keeping a nearly constant relation to Elo rating across that time. The distribution of the model’s Intrinsic Performance Ratings can hence be used to compare populations that have limited interaction, such as between players in a national chess federation and FIDE, and ascertain relative drift in their respective rating systems.

Item Type:Book or Report Section
ID Code:23800
Uncontrolled Keywords:chess, computer games, ratings, statistics
Additional Information:13th International Conference, ACG 2011 Tilburg, The Netherlands, November 20-22, 2011


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