Don’t trust your poll lead: how public opinion changes during referendum campaignsRenwick, A. (2014) Don’t trust your poll lead: how public opinion changes during referendum campaigns. In: Cowley, P. and Ford, R. (eds.) Sex, lies and the ballot box: 50 things you need to know about British elections. Biteback, London, pp. 79-84. ISBN 9781849547550
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. Official URL: https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/sex-lies-... Abstract/SummaryPoliticians call (or call for) referendums with increasing frequency. But how can they know they will win? Looking at the polls is not enough: opinion during referendum campaigns is often volatile. But this chapter shows that there are nevertheless some recurring patterns that allow us to make reasonable predictions in most cases.
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