Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policiesBardsley, N., Schnepf, S. V. and Buchs, M. (2017) Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies. PLoS ONE, 12 (10). e0185538. ISSN 1932-6203
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing. To link to this item DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185538 Abstract/SummaryConsumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which c.40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households' annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.
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