Downloads

Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., and Salamon, P.: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol., 517, 913-922, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.035, 2014. Arnal, L., Ramos, M-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, 2016. Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H., and Pappenberger, F.: An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity, J. Hydrometeor., 18(6), 1715-1729, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1, 2017. Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057-2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. Arribas, A., Glover, M., Maidens, A., Peterson, K., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Graham, R., Fereday, D., Camp, J., Scaife, A. A., Xavier, P., McLean, P., and Colman, A.: The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting, Mon. Weather. Rev., 139, 1891–1910, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3615.1, 2010. Asrar, G. R., Hurrell, J. W., and Busalacchi, A. J.: A need for “actionable” climate science and information: summary of WCRP open science conference, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00011.1, 2012. Bell, V. A., Davies, H. N., Kay, A. L., Marsh, T. J., Brookshaw, A., and Jenkins, A.: Developing a large-scale water-balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain, Hydrol. Process., 27, doi:10.1002/hyp.9863, 2013. Bell, V. A., Davies, H. N., Kay, A. L., Brookshaw, A., and Scaife, A. A.: A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain [in special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting] Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21 (9), 4681-4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, 2017. Bloomfield, J. P., and Marchant, B. P.: Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4769–4787, 2013, doi:10.5194/hess-17-4769-2013, 2013. Bolson, J., Martinez, C., Breuer, N., Srivastava, P., and Knox, P.: Climate information use among southeast US water managers: beyond barriers and toward opportunities, Reg. Environ. Change., 13(1), 141-151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0463-1, 2013. CEH.: Hydrological Outlook – Further Information for November 2013, http://www.hydoutuk.net/archive/2013/november-2013/further-information-november-2013/, 2013. (Accessed 25/04/2018) CEH.: Hydrological Outlook UK, http://www.hydoutuk.net/, 2018. (Accessed 09/04/2018) Chatterton, J., Viavattene, C., Morris, J., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Tapsell, S.: The costs of the summer 2007 floods in England, Environment Agency Report SC070039, Rio House, Bristol, UK, 2010. Chiew, F. H. S., Zhou, S. L., and McMahon, T. A.: Use of seasonal streamflow forecasts in water resources management, J. Hydrol., 270, 135–144, 2003. Copernicus.: EDgE. Climate Change Service, http://edge.climate.copernicus.eu/, 2017a. (Accessed 31/05/2018). Copernicus.: SWICCA: Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation, SMHI, http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/, 2017b (Accessed 31/05/2018). Coughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M. K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., Jongma, B., Lopez, A., Mason, S., Mendler de Suarez, J., Pappenberger, F., Rueth, A., Stephens, E., Suarez, P., Wagemaker, J., and Zsoter, E.: Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3549-3560, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016, 2016. Crochemore, L., Ramos, M-H., Pappenberger, F., van Andel, S.J., and Wood, A. W.: An experiment on risk-based decision-making in water management using monthly probabilistic forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97(4): 541-551, 2015. Demeritt, C., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., and Ramos, M-H.: Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting, Environmental Hazards, 7, 115-127, doi:10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.001, 2011. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., García-Serrano, J., Lienert, F., Biescas, A. P., and Rodrigues, L. R. L: Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects, WIREs Clim. Change, 4, 245–268, doi:10.1002/wcc.217, 2013. Emerton, R., Zsoter, E, Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E., Salamon, P., and Pappenberger, F.: Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS v2.2 Seasonal v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-118, (in review), 2018. Environment Agency.: Thames Catchment Flood Management Plan – Managing Flood Risk, Summary Report December 2009, EA, Kings Meadow House, Reading, 2009. Environment Agency.: The costs and impacts of the winter 2013 to 2014 floods, Technical Report SC140025, Defra/Environment Agency Joint R&D programme, 2015. Environment Agency.: Groundwater Level Measurements (AfA075), Data contains Environment Agency information © Environment Agency and/or database right, All rights reserved, Data sourced under Environment Agency Conditional Licence, 2017. Farolfi, S., Hassan, R., Perret, S., and MacKay, H.: A role-playing game to support multi-stakeholder negotiations related to water allocation in South Africa: First applications and potential developments, Midrand: Water Resources as Ecosystems: Scientists, Government and Society at the Crossroads, 2004. Fry, M., Smith, K., Sheffield, J., Watts, G., Wood, E., Cooper, J., Prudhomme, C., and Rees, G.: Communication of uncertainty in hydrological predictions: a user-driven example web service for Europe, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 19, EGU2017-16474, EGU General Assembly 2017, 2017. Golding, N., Hewitt, C., Zhang, P., Bett, P., Fang, X., Hu, H., and Nobert, S: Improving user engagement and uptake of climate services in China, Climate Services, 5, 39-45, 2016. Gray, D.: Gamestorming – Empathy Map, http://gamestorming.com/empathy-mapping/, 2017. (Accessed 01/05/2018). Harrison, J.: Flood hazard management: Using an alternative community-based approach, Planet, 4, 5–6, 2002. Huntingford, C., Marsh, T., Scaife, A. A., Kendon, E. J., Hannaford, J., Kay, A. L., Lockwood, M., Prudhomme, C., Reynar, N. S., Parry, S., Lowe, J. A., Screen, J. A., Ward, H. C., Roberts, M., Stott, P. A., Bell, V. A., Bailey, M., Jenkins, A., Legg, T., Otto, F. E. Lff., Massey, N., Schaller, N., Slingo, J., and Allen, M. A.: Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 769-777, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2314, 2014. Ishikawa, T., Barnson, A. G., Kastens, K. A., and Louchouarn, P.: Understanding, evaluation, and use of climate forecast data by environmental policy students, In Feig, A. D and Stokes, A. (Eds.), Qualitative inquiry in geoscience education research, Geological Society of America Special Paper 474 (pp. 153–170), Denver, CO: Geol. Soc. Am., 2011. IMPREX.: Thames River Basin, http://imprex.eu/thames-river-basin, 2018a. (Accessed 08/04/2018). IMPREX.: Risk Outlook Tool, http://www.imprex.eu/innovation/risk-outlook, 2018b. (Accessed 21/05/2018). Jones, L., Dougill, A., Jones, R. G., Steynor, A., Watkiss, P., Kane, C., Koelle, B., Moufouma-Okia, W., Padgham, J., Ranger, N., Roux, J-P., Suarez, P., Tanner, T., and Vincent. K.: Ensuring climate information guides long-term development, Nat. Clim. Change, 5 (9), 812–814. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2701, 2015. JRC.: European Flood Awareness System, https://www.efas.eu/, 2018a. (Accessed 09/04/2018). JRC.: Global Flood Awareness System, http://www.globalfloods.eu/user-information/seasonal_outlook/, 2018b. (Accessed 09/04/2018). Kendon, M., and McCarthy, M.: The UK’s wet and stormy winter of 2013/2014, Weather, 70 (2), 40-47, doi:10.1002/wea.2465, 2015. Kirchhoff, C. J., Lemos, M. C, and Engle, N. L.: What influences climate information use in water management? The role of boundary organizations and governance regimes in Brazil and the U.S., Environ. Sci. Policy, 26, 6–18, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.001, 2013. Lemos, M. C., Kirchhoff, C. J., and Ramprasad, V.: Narrowing the climate information usability gap. Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 789–794, 2012. Li, Y., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: A coupled human–natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4693–4709, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4693-2017, 2017. Lorenz, S., Dessai, S., Forster, P., and Paavola, J.: Tailoring the visual communication of climate projections for local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the United Kingdom, Philos. Trans. A., http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0457, 2015. MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Peterson, K. A., Maidens, A., Fereday, D., Scaife, A. A. Gordon, M., Vellinga, M., Williams, A., Comer, R. E., Camp, J., XavieR, P., and Madec, G.: Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system, Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1072–1084, doi:10.1002/qj.2396, 2015. McEwen, L. J., Krause, F., Jones, O., and Garde Hansen, J.: Sustainable flood memories, informal knowledge and the development of community resilience to future flood risk, Transactions on Ecology and The Environment, 159, 253-263, 2012. McEwen, L., Stokes, A., Crowley, K., and Roberts, C.: Using role-play for expert science communication with professional stakeholders in flood risk management, Journal of Geography in Higher Education, 38:2, 277-300, doi:10.1080/03098265.2014.911827, 2014. Meadow, A., Ferguson, D., Guido, Z., Horangic, A., Owen, G., and Wall, T.: Moving toward the deliberate co-production of climate science knowledge, Weather, Clim. Soc., 7(2), 179-191, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00050.1, 2015. Meißner, D., Klein, B., and Ionita, M.: Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6401–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6401-2017, 2017. Met Office.: EUPORIAS Project, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/euporias, 2018. (Accessed 16/06/2018) Molteni, F., Stockdale, T., Alonso-Balmaseda, M., Buizza, R., Ferranti, L., Magnusson, L., Mogensen, K., Palmer, T. N., and Vitart, F.: The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4), ECMWF Tech. Memo., 656, 1–49, 2011. Muchan, K., Lewis, M., Hannaford, J., and Parry, S.: The winter storms of 2013/2014 in the UK: hydrological responses and impacts, Weather, 70 (2), 55-61, doi:10.1002/wea.2469, 2015. Neumann, J. L., Arnal, L., Emerton, R., Griffith, H., Theofanidi,, S. and Cloke, H.: Supporting the integration and application of seasonal hydrological forecasts in the West Thames. Technical Report for IMPREX, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.19905.25447, 2017. Neumann, J. L., Arnal, L, L, S., Magnusson, L., and Cloke, H. L.: The 2013/14 Thames basin floods: Do improved meteorological forecasts lead to more skilful hydrological forecasts at seasonal timescales? J. Hydrometeor., 19, 1059-1075, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0182.1, 2018a. National River Flow Archive (NRFA).: Search for Gauging Stations, http://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/data/search, 2017. (Accessed 10/07/17). Parry, S., Prudhomme, C., Wilby, R., and Wood, P.: Chronology of drought termination for long records in the Thames catchment, In: Andreu, J., Solera, A., Paredes-Arquiola, J., Haro-Monteagudo, D., and van Lanen, H., (eds.) Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing, London: Taylor & Francis (CRC Press), pp. 165-170, 2015. Pavey, J., and Donoghue, D.: The use of role play and VLEs in teaching environmental management. Planet, 10, 7–10, 2003. Prudhomme, C., Shaffrey, L. C., Woolings, T., Jackson, C.R., Fowler, H. J., and Anderson, B.: IMPETUS: Improving predictions of drought for user decision-making, In: Andreu, J., Solera, A., Paredes-Arquiola, J., Haro-Monteagudo, D. and van Lanen, H. (Eds), Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing, CRC Press, DOI: 10.1201/b18077-47, 2015. Prudhomme, C., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Boorman, D., Knight, J., Bell, V., Jackson, C., Svensson, C., Parry, S., Bachiller-Jareno, N., Davies, H., Davis, R., Mackay, J., McKenzie, A., Rudd, A., Smith, K., Bloomfield, J., Ward R., and Jenkins, A.: Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62:16, 2753-2768, doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1395032, 2017. Ramos, M-H., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2219–2232, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013, 2013. Rapley, C. G., de Meyer, K., Carney, J., Clarke, R., Howarth, C., Smith, N., Stilgoe, J., Youngs, S., Brierley, C., Haugvaldstad, A., Lotto, B., Michie, S., Shipworth, M., and Tuckett, D.: Time for Change? Climate Science Reconsidered, Report of the UCL Policy Commission on Communicating Climate Science, 2014. Rodwell, M. J., Ferranti, L., Magnusson, L., Weisheimer, A., Rabier, F., and Richardson, D.: Diagnosis of northern hemispheric regime behaviour during winter 2013/14, ECMWF Tech. Memo., 769, 1-12, 2015. Soares, M. B., and Dessai, S. J.: Exploring the use of seasonal climate forecasts in Europe through expert elicitation, Climate Risk Management 10, 8–16, 2015. Soares, M. B., and Dessai, S. J.: Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe, Climatic Change, 137:89–103, DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1671-8, 2016. Soares, M. B., Alexander, M., and Dessai, S. J.: Sectoral use of climate information in Europe: A synoptic overview, Climate Services, 9, 5-20, 2018. Thames Water.: Hydrological Context for Water Quality And Ecology Preliminary Impact Assessments, Technical Appendix B, Thames Water Utilities Ltd 2W0H Lower Thames Operating Agreement (Cascade Consulting), 2010. Turner, S. W. D., Bennett, J. C., Robertson, D. E., and Galelli, S.: Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4841–4859, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4841-2017, 2017. UK Gov.: Water Situation Reports, https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/water-situation-reports-for-england, 2018. (Accessed 05/05/2018). Van der Knijff, J. M., Younis, J., and De Roo, A. P. J.: LISFLOOD: a GIS‐based distributed model for river basin scale water balance and flood simulation, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 24, 189-212, doi:10.1080/13658810802549154, 2010. van den Hurk, B. J .J .M., Bouwer, L. M., Buontempo, C., Döscher, R., Ercin, E., Hananel, C., Hunink, J.E., Kjellström, E., Klein, B., Manez, M., Pappenberger, F., Pouget, L., Ramos, M-H., Ward, P. J., Weerts, A. H., and Wijngaard, J. B.: Improving predictions and management of hydrological extremes through climate services, Climate Services, 1, 6-11, 2016. Vaughan, C., Buja, L., Kruczkiewicz, A., and Goddard, L.: Identifying research priorities to advance climate services, Climate Services 4, 65–74, 2016. Viel, C., Beaulant, A-L., Soubeyroux, J-M., and Céron, J. P: How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an example of climate service for water resource management, Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 51–55, doi:10.5194/asr-13-51-2016, 2016. Wells, M., and Davis, H.: Water transfer for public water supply via the CRT canal network, presentation Black and Veatch, 2016. Wood, A. W., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: An ensemble approach for attribution of hydrologic prediction uncertainty, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14401, doi:10.1029/2008GL034648, 2008.