Investigating the effects of inter-annual weather variation (1968- 2016) on the functional response of cereal grain yield to applied nitrogen, using data from the Rothamsted Long-Term experiments

Lists

Tools

Addy, J. W. G., Ellis, R. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3695-6894, Macdonald, A. J., Semenov, M. A. and Mead, A. (2020) Investigating the effects of inter-annual weather variation (1968- 2016) on the functional response of cereal grain yield to applied nitrogen, using data from the Rothamsted Long-Term experiments. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 284. 107898. ISSN 0168-1923

Preview

Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.
3MB

Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only
3MB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107898

Abstract/Summary

The effect of weather on inter-annual variation in the crop yield response to nitrogen (N) fertilizer for winter wheat (Triticum aestivvum L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) was investigated using yield data from the Broadbalk Wheat and Hoosfield Spring Barley long-term experiments at Rothamsted Research. Grain yields of crops from 1968 to 2016 were modelled as a function of N rates using a linear-plus-exponential (LEXP) function. The extent to which inter-annual variation in the parameters of these responses was explained by variations in weather (monthly summarized temperatures and rainfall), and by changes in the cultivar grown, was assessed. The inter-annual variability in rainfall and underlying temperature influenced the crop N response and hence grain yields in both crops. Asymptotic yields in wheat were particularly sensitive to mean temperature in November, April and May, and to total rainfall in October, February and June. In spring barley asymptotic yields were sensitive to mean temperature in February and June, and to total rainfall in April to July inclusive and September. The method presented here explores the separation of agronomic and environmental (weather) influences on crop yield over time. Fitting N response curves across multiple treatments can support an informative analysis of the influence of weather variation on the yield variability. Whilst there are issues of the confounding and collinearity of explanatory variables within such models, and that other factors also influence yields over time, our study confirms the considerable impact of weather variables at certain times of the year. This emphasizes the importance of including weather temporal variation when evaluating the impacts of climate change on crops.

Item Type:	Article
Refereed:	Yes
Divisions:	Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Department of Crop Science
ID Code:	88357
Uncontrolled Keywords:	crop yield, wheat, Triticum aestivum L., barley, Hordeum vulgare L., nitrogen, rainfall, temperature, climate change
Publisher:	Elsevier

Download Statistics

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Altmetric

Deposit Details

References

• Addiscott, T.M., Powlson, D.S., 1992. Partitioning losses of nitrogen fertilizer between leaching and denitrification. J. Agric. Sci. 118, 101–107. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859600068052 • Adler, D., Murdoch, D., 2016. 3D Visualization Using OpenGL. • Akaike, H., 1973. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle., in: Petrov, B.N., Csáki, F. (Eds.), Proceedings to the 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory. Budapest: Akadémiai Kiadó., pp. 267–281. • Allingham, K.D., Cartwright, R., Donaghy, D., Conway, J.S., Goulding, K.W.T., Jarvis, S.C., 2002. Nitrate leaching losses and their control in a mixed farm system in the Cotswold Hills, England. Soil Use Manag. 18, 421–427. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.2002.tb00261.x • Amrheim, V., Greenland, S., McShane, B., 2019. Scientists rise up against statistical significance. Nature 567, 305–307. • Cerrato, M.E., Blackmer, A.M., 1990. Comparison of Models for Describing; Corn Yield Response to Nitrogen Fertilizer. Agron. J. 82, 138. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj1990.00021962008200010030x • Chmielewski, F.-M., Potts, J.M., 1995. The relationship between crop yields from an experiment in southern England and long-term climate variations. Agric. For. Meteorol. 73, 43–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(94)02174-I • da Silva, A.P., Kay, B.D., 1997. Effect of Soil Water Content Variation on the Least Limiting Water Range. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 61, 884. https://doi.org/10.2136/sssaj1997.03615995006100030024x • Ellis, R.H., Salahi, M., Jones, S.A., 1999. Yield-density equations can be extended to quantify the effect of applied nitrogen and cultivar on wheat grain yield. Ann. Appl. Biol. 134, 347–352. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7348.1999.tb05275.x • FAO, 2017. Sustaiable intensification of Agriculture | Policy Support and Governance | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [WWW Document]. URL http://www.fao.org/policy-support/policy-themes/sustainable-intensificationagriculture/en/ (accessed 9.20.17). • Ferris, R., Ellis, R.H., Wheeler, T.R., Hadley, P., 1998. Effect of High Temperature Stress at Anthesis on Grain Yield and Biomass of Field-grown Crops of Wheat. Ann. Bot. 82, 631–639. • Fisher, R.A., 1921. Studies in Crop Variation. I. An examination of the yield of dressed grain from Broadbalk. J. Agric. Sci. 11, 107–135. • Fisher, R.A., 1925. The Influence of Rainfall on the Yield of Wheat at Rothamsted. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 213, 89–142. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1925.0003 • Fox, J., Weisberg, S., 2016. An R Companion to Applied Regression. • Gaju, O., Martre, P., Snape, J., Heumez, E., LeGouis, J., Moreau, D., Bogard, M., Grifffiths, S., Orford, S., Hubbart, S., Foulkes, M., 2011. Identification of traits to improve the nitrogen-use efficiency of wheat genotypes. F. Crop. Res. 123, 139–152. • George, B.J., 1982. Design and interpretation of nitrogen response experiments., in: Nitrogen Requirement of Cereals: Proceedings of a Conference Organised by the Agricultural Development and Advisory Service. HMSO, London. • Glendining, M.J., Poulton, P.R., Powlson, D.S., Jenkinson, D.S., 1997. Fate of 15N-labelled fertilizer applied to spring barley grown on soils of contrasting nutrient status. Plant Soil 195, 83–98. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004295531657 • Glynne, M.D., 1969. Fungus diseases of wheat on Broadbalk, Rothamsted Experimental Station Report for 1968, Part 2. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23637/ERADOC-1-34924 • Gooding, M.J., Davies, W.P., 1997. Wheat production and utilization: systems, quality and the environment. CAB International. • Gooding, M.J., Davies, W.P., Thompson, A.J., Smith, S.P., 1993. The challenge of achieving breadmaking quality in organic and low input wheat in the UK - a review. Asp. Appl. Biol. 36, 189–198. • Gooding, M.J., Ellis, R.H., Shewry, P.R., Schofield, J.D., 2003. Effects of restricted water availability and increased temperature on the grain filling, drying and quality of winter wheat. J. Cereal Sci. 37, 295–309. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcrs.2002.0501 • Gooding, M.J., Pinyosinwat, A., Ellis, R.H., 2002. Responses of wheat grain yield and quality to seed rate. J. Agric. Sci. 138, 317–331. • Hatfield, J.L., Dold, C., 2018. Agroclimatology and Wheat Production: Coping with Climate Change. Front. Plant Sci. 9, 224. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.00224 • IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004 • Johnston, A.E., Poulton, P.R., 2018. The importance of long-term experiments in agriculture: their management to ensure continued crop production and soil fertility; the Rothamsted experience. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 69, 113–125. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejss.12521 • Johnston, A.E., Poulton, P.R., Coleman, K., 2009. Chapter 1 Soil Organic Matter: Its Importance in Sustainable Agriculture and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes. Adv. Agron. 101, 1–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2113(08)00801-8 • Katz, R.W., 1977. Assessing the impact of climatic change on food production. Clim. Change 1, 85–96. • Khah, E.M., Ellis, R.H., Roberts, E.H., 1986. Effects of laboratory germination, soil temperature and moisture content on the emergence of spring wheat. J. Agric. Sci. 107, 431–438. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859600087232 • Khah, E.M., Roberts, E.H., Ellis, R.H., 1989. Effects of seed ageing on growth and yield of spring wheat at different plant-population densities. F. Crop. Res. 20, 175–190. • Lawes, J.B., 1847. On agricultural chemistry. J. R. Agric. Soc. Engl. 8, 226–260. • Lawes, J.B., Gilbert, J.H., 1857. Agricultural Chemistry - On the growth of barley by different manures continuously on the same land; and on the position of the crop in rotation. J. R. Agric. Soc. Engl. 18, 454–531. • Lawes, J.B., Gilbert, J.H., 1871. Effects of the drought of 1870 on some of the experimental crops at Rothamsted. J. R. Agric. Soc. Engl. 7, 91–132. • Lawes, J.B., Gilbert, J.H., 1880. Our climate and our wheat crops. J. R. Agric. Soc. Engl. 2nd Ser. 16, 173–210. • Macdonald, A.J., Poulton, P.R., Clark, I.M., Scott, T., Glendining, M.J., Perryman, S.M., • Storkey, J., Bell, J.R., McMillan, V., Hawkings, J., 2018. Guide to the Classical and other Long-Term experiments, Datasets and Sample Archive. Rothamsted Research. • Monteith, J.L., 1977. Climate and the Efficiency of Crop Production in Britain [and Discussion]. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 281, 277–294. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1977.0140 • Nelder, J.A., 1966. Inverse polynomials, a useful group of multi-factor response functions. Biometrics 22, 128–141. • NOAA, 2017. Global Climate Report - Annual 2016. [WWW Document]. URL https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613 (accessed 9.20.17). • NOAA, 2018. Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide [WWW Document]. URL https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html (accessed 6.12.18). • Peña-Gallardo, M., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Quiring, S., Svoboda, M., Hannaford, J., Tomas-Burguera, M., Martín-Hernández, N., Domínguez-Castro, F., El Kenawy, A., 2019. Response of crop yield to different time-scales of drought in the United States: Spatiotemporal patterns and climatic and environmental drivers. Agric. For. Meteorol. 264, 40–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.019 • Powlson, D.S., Hart, P.B.S., Poulton, P.R., Johnston, A.E., Jenkinson, D.S., 1992. Influence of soil type, crop management and weather on the recovery of 15 N-labelled fertilizer applied to winter wheat in spring. J. Agric. Sci. 118, 83–100. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859600068040 • Powlson, D.S., Pruden, T.L.G., Johnston, A.E., Jenkinson, D.S., 1986. The nitrogen cycle in the Broadbalk Wheat Experiment: recovery and losses of 15 N-labelled fertilizer applied in spring and inputs of nitrogen from the atmosphere. J. Agric. Sci. 107, 591–609. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859600069768 • R Core Team, 2016. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. • Roques, S.E., Kindred, D.R., Clarke, S., 2017. Triticale out-performs wheat on range of UK soils with a similar nitrogen requirement. J. Agric. Sci. 155, 261–281. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859616000356 • Sylvester-Bradley, R., Kindred, D.R., 2009. Analysing nitrogen responses of cereals to prioritize routes to the improvement of nitrogen use efficiency. J. Exp. Bot. 60, 1939– 1951. https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp116 • Sylvester-Bradley, R., Murray, A.W.A., 1982. The response of winter wheat to nitrogen., in: Nitrogen Requirement of Cereals: Proceedings of a Conference Organised by the Agricultural Development and Advisory Service. HMSO, London. • Tottman, D.R., Makepeace, R.J., Broad, H., 1979. An explanation of the decimal code for the growth stages of cereals, with illustrations. Ann. Appl. Biol. 93, 221-234. • VSN International, 2017. Genstat® for Windows 19th Edition. • Vold, A., 1998. A generalization of ordinary yield response functions. Ecol. Modell. 108, 227–236. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00031-3 • Warren, R.G., Johnston, A.E., 1967. Hoosfield Continuous Barley, Rothamsted Experimental Station Report for 1966. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.23637/ERADOC-1-47796 • Watts, C.W., Clark, L.J., Poulton, P.R., Powlson, D.S., Whitmore, A.P., 2006. The role of clay, organic carbon and long-term management on mouldboard plough draught measured on the Broadbalk wheat experiment at Rothamsted. Soil Use Manag. 22, 334–341. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.2006.00054.x • Welham, S.J., Gezan, S.A., Clark, S.J., Mead, A., 2015. Statistical Methods in Biology – Design and Analysis of Experiments and Regression. Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton, USA. • Wheeler, T.R., Batts, G.R., Ellis, R.H., Hadley, P., Morison, J.I.L., 1996. Growth and yield of winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum) crops in response to CO2 and temperature. J. Agric. Sci. 127, 37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859600077352 • Wheeler, T.R., Craufurd, P.Q., Ellis, R.H., Porter, J.R., Vara Prasad, P. V., 2000. Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00224-3 • Wishart, J., Mackenzie, W.A., 1930. Studies in Crop Variation VII. The Influence of Rainfall on the Yield of Barley at Rothamsted. J. Agric. Sci. 20, 417–439. • Zadock, J.C., Chang, Konzak, C.F., 1974. A decimal code for the growth stages of cereals. Weed Res. 14, 415-421.

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

University of Reading

CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading

Accessibility navigation

Investigating the effects of inter-annual weather variation (1968- 2016) on the functional response of cereal grain yield to applied nitrogen, using data from the Rothamsted Long-Term experiments

Abstract/Summary

Downloads

Page navigation

See also

Footer navigation