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Bayesian data assimilation to support informed decision-making in individualized chemotherapy

Maier, C., Hartung, N., de Wiljes, J., Kloft, C. and Huisinga, W. (2020) Bayesian data assimilation to support informed decision-making in individualized chemotherapy. CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology, 9 (3). pp. 153-164. ISSN 2163-8306

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1002/psp4.12492


An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP-based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy-induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computational efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Mathematics and Statistics
ID Code:88591
Uncontrolled Keywords:Bayesian, Chemotherapy, Individualization, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Oncology, Personalized Medicine, Sequential Design, Target Concentration Intervention, Therapeutic Drug Monitoring


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