Abstract/Summary

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has become prevalent in the industry in order to reduce maintenance cost and to achieve sustainable operational management. The core of PdM is to predict the next failure so corresponding maintenance can be scheduled before it happens. The purpose of this study is to establish a Time-Between-Failure (TBF) prediction model through a data-driven approach. For PdM, data sparsity is regarded as a critical issue which can jeopardize algorithm performance for the modelling based on maintenance data. Meanwhile, data censoring has imposed another challenge for handling maintenance data because the censored data is only partially labelled. Furthermore, data sparsity may affect algorithm performance of existing approaches when addressing the data censoring issue. In this study, a new approach called Cox proportional hazard deep learning (CoxPHDL) is proposed to tackle the aforementioned issues of data sparsity and data censoring that are common in the analysis of operational maintenance data. The idea is to offer an integrated solution by taking advantage of deep learning and reliability analysis. To start with, an autoencoder is adopted to convert the nominal data into a robust representation. Secondly, a Cox proportional hazard model (Cox PHM) is researched to estimate the TBF of the censored data. A long-short-term memory (LSTM) network is then established to train the TBF prediction model based on the pre-processed maintenance data. Experimental studies using a sizable real-world fleet maintenance data set provided by a UK fleet company have demonstrated the merits of the proposed approach where the algorithm performance based on the proposed LSTM network has been improved respectively in terms of MCC and RMSE.