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Training conditional and cumulative risk judgements: the role of frequencies, problem-structure and Einstellung

McCloy, R., Beaman, C. P., Morgan, B. and Speed, R. (2007) Training conditional and cumulative risk judgements: the role of frequencies, problem-structure and Einstellung. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 21 (3). pp. 325-344. ISSN 0888-4080

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1002/acp.1273

Abstract/Summary

Two experiments implement and evaluate a training scheme for learning to apply frequency formats to probability judgements couched in terms of percentages. Results indicate that both conditional and cumulative probability judgements can be improved in this manner, however the scheme is insufficient to promote any deeper understanding of the problem structure. In both experiments, training on one problem type only (either conditional or cumulative risk judgements) resulted in an inappropriate transfer of a learned method at test. The obstacles facing a frequency-based training programme for teaching appropriate use of probability data are discussed. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Life Sciences > School of Psychology and Clinical Language Sciences
ID Code:13947
Uncontrolled Keywords:MENTAL-MODEL-THEORY, ANALOGICAL TRANSFER, SCREENING MAMMOGRAPHY, BREAST-CANCER, INFORMATION, LESSONS, AGE

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