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Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts

Baldwin, M. P., Stephenson, D. B., Thompson, D. W.J., Dunkerton , T. J., Charlton, A. J. and O'Neill, A. (2003) Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts. Science, 301 (5633). pp. 636-640. ISSN 1095-9203

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1126/science.1087143

Abstract/Summary

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:1561
Publisher:American Association for the Advancement of Science

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