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Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Smith, P., Dance, S. L., Baines, M. J., Nichols, N. K. and Scott, T. R. (2009) Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model. Ocean Dynamics, 59 (5). pp. 697-708. ISSN 1616-7341

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1007/s10236-009-0205-6

Abstract/Summary

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Environmental Systems Science Centre
ID Code:1702
Uncontrolled Keywords:Data assimilation - Morphodynamic modelling - Parameter estimation - State augmentation
Additional Information:Conference Information: 14th International Biennial Conference on Physics of Estuaries and Coastal Seas Liverpool, ENGLAND, AUG 15-29, 2008
Publisher:Springer

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