Autoregressive conditional kurtosis

Brooks, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2668-1153, Burke, S. P., Heravi, S. and Persand, G. (2005) Autoregressive conditional kurtosis. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 3 (3). pp. 399-421. ISSN 1479-8417 doi: 10.1093/jjfinec/nbi018

Abstract/Summary

This article proposes a new model for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and kurtosis. Via a time-varying degrees of freedom parameter, the conditional variance and conditional kurtosis are permitted to evolve separately. The model uses only the standard Student’s t-density and consequently can be estimated simply using maximum likelihood. The method is applied to a set of four daily financial asset return series comprising U.S. and U.K. stocks and bonds, and significant evidence in favor of the presence of autoregressive conditional kurtosis is observed. Various extensions to the basic model are proposed, and we show that the response of kurtosis to good and bad news is not significantly asymmetric.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/20558
Identification Number/DOI	10.1093/jjfinec/nbi018
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Henley Business School > Finance and Accounting Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords	conditional kurtosis; fat tails; fourth moment; GARCH; Student’s t-distribution
Publisher	Oxford University Press
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