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The production and consumption of commercial real estate market forecasts

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Gallimore, P. and McAllister, P., (2005) The production and consumption of commercial real estate market forecasts. Working Papers in Real Estate & Planning. 06/05. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp47.

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Abstract/Summary

Whilst the vast majority of the research on property market forecasting has concentrated on statistical methods of forecasting future rents, this report investigates the process of property market forecast production with particular reference to the level and effect of judgemental intervention in this process. Expectations of future investment performance at the levels of individual asset, sector, region, country and asset class are crucial to stock selection and tactical and strategic asset allocation decisions. Given their centrality to investment performance, we focus on the process by which forecasts of rents and yields are generated and expectations formed. A review of the wider literature on forecasting suggests that there are strong grounds to expect that forecast outcomes are not the result of purely mechanical calculations.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:20896
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author. If you wish to quote from or cite any paper please contact the appropriate author; in some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere.

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