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Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

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McAllister, P., Newell, G. and Matysiak, G., (2005) Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement. Working Papers in Real Estate & Planning. 13/05. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp22.

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Abstract/Summary

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that real estate forecasts are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that real estate forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:20977
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author. If you wish to quote from or cite any paper please contact the appropriate author; in some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere.

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