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Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

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Gallimore, P. and McAllister, P., (2004) Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting. Working Papers in Real Estate & Planning. 11/04. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp34.

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Abstract/Summary

In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:21514
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author. If you wish to quote from or cite any paper please contact the appropriate author; in some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere.

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