Accessibility navigation


Improved predictability of the troposphere using stratospheric final warmings

Hardiman, S. C., Butchart, N., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Shaw, T. A., Akiyoshi, H., Baumgaertner, A., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Garcia, R. R., Michou, M., Pawson, S., Rozanov, E. and Shibata, K. (2011) Improved predictability of the troposphere using stratospheric final warmings. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116. D18113. ISSN 2156–2202

Full text not archived in this repository.

To link to this article DOI: 10.1029/2011JD015914

Abstract/Summary

The final warming of the stratospheric polar vortex at the end of northern hemisphere winter is examined in ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data and an ensemble of chemistry climate models, using 20 years of data from each. In some years the final warming is found to occur first in the mid-stratosphere, and in others to occur first in the upper stratosphere. The strength of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, refraction of planetary waves, and the altitudes at which the planetary waves break in the northern extratropics lead to this difference in the vertical profile of the final warming. Years in which the final warming occurs first in the mid-stratosphere show, on average, a more negative NAO pattern in April mean sea level pressure than years in which the warming occurs first in the upper stratosphere. Thus, in the northern hemisphere, additional predictive skill of tropospheric climate in April can be gained from a knowledge of the vertical profile of the stratospheric final warming.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:22771
Publisher:American Geophysical Union

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation