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Modelling the implied volatility of options on long gilt futures


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Brooks, C. and Oozeer, M.C. (2002) Modelling the implied volatility of options on long gilt futures. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 29 (1-2). pp. 111-137. ISSN 1468-5957

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00426


This paper investigates the properties of implied volatility series calculated from options on Treasury bond futures, traded on LIFFE. We demonstrate that the use of near-maturity at the money options to calculate implied volatilities causes less mis-pricing and is therefore superior to, a weighted average measure encompassing all relevant options. We demonstrate that, whilst a set of macroeconomic variables has some predictive power for implied volatilities, we are not able to earn excess returns by trading on the basis of these predictions once we allow for typical investor transactions costs.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Henley Business School > ICMA Centre
ID Code:24154
Uncontrolled Keywords:implied volatility;options on bond futures;trading rule;macroeconomic predictors;out-of-sample forecasting
Publisher:Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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