Working Group 1: Future developments in deterministic and stochastic parametrizations
Pincus, R., Shutts, G., Forbes, R., Arnold, H., Crommelin, D., Descamps, L., Dorrestijn, J., Feddersen, H., Komori, T., Kwasinok, F., McNamara, H., Plant, B., Raisanen, P., Randall, D., Rauser, F., Seifert, A., Teixeira, J. and Zanna, L. (2011) Working Group 1: Future developments in deterministic and stochastic parametrizations. In: Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Models , 20-24 June 2011, ECMWF, Reading, vii-xi.
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Our group considered the desirability of including representations of uncertainty in the development of parameterizations. (By ‘uncertainty’ here we mean the deviation of sub-grid scale fluxes or tendencies in any given model grid box from truth.) We unanimously agreed that the ECWMF should attempt to provide a more physical basis for uncertainty estimates than the very effective but ad hoc methods being used at present. Our discussions identified several issues that will arise.
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