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Working Group 1: Future developments in deterministic and stochastic parametrizations


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Pincus, R., Shutts, G., Forbes, R., Arnold, H., Crommelin, D., Descamps, L., Dorrestijn, J., Feddersen, H., Komori, T., Kwasinok, F., McNamara, H., Plant, B., Raisanen, P., Randall, D., Rauser, F., Seifert, A., Teixeira, J. and Zanna, L. (2011) Working Group 1: Future developments in deterministic and stochastic parametrizations. In: Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Models , 20-24 June 2011, ECMWF, Reading, vii-xi.

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Our group considered the desirability of including representations of uncertainty in the development of parameterizations. (By ‘uncertainty’ here we mean the deviation of sub-grid scale fluxes or tendencies in any given model grid box from truth.) We unanimously agreed that the ECWMF should attempt to provide a more physical basis for uncertainty estimates than the very effective but ad hoc methods being used at present. Our discussions identified several issues that will arise.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:25746

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