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Persistence of UK Real Estate returns: a Markov chain analysis

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Lee, S. L. and Ward, C. W. R., (2000) Persistence of UK Real Estate returns: a Markov chain analysis. Working Papers in Land Management & Development. 12/00. Working Paper. University of Reading, Reading. pp30.

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Abstract/Summary

The persistence of investment performance is a topic of perennial interest to investors. Efficient Markets theory tells us that past performance can not be used to predict future performance yet investors appear to be influenced by the historical performance in making their investment allocation decisions. The problem has been of particular interest to investors in real estate; not least because reported returns from investment in real estate are serially correlated thus implying some persistence in investment performance. This paper applies the established approach of Markov Chain analysis to investigate the relationship between past and present performance of UK real estate over the period 1981 to 1996. The data are analysed by sector, region and size. Furthermore some variations in investment performance classification are reported and the results are shown to be robust.

Item Type:Report (Working Paper)
Divisions:Henley Business School > Real Estate and Planning
ID Code:27206
Publisher:University of Reading
Publisher Statement:The copyright of each working paper remains with the author. If you wish to quote from or cite any paper please contact the appropriate author; in some cases a more recent version of the paper may have been published elsewhere.

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