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A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting

Bengtsson, L., Schlese, U., Roeckner, E., Latif, M., Barnett, T. and Graham, N. (1993) A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting. Science, 261 (5124). pp. 1026-1029. ISSN 0036-8075

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1126/science.261.5124.1026

Abstract/Summary

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Environmental Systems Science Centre
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:31856

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