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Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations

Ulbrich, U., Pinto, J. G., Kupfer, H., Leckebusch, G. C., Spangehl, T. and Reyers, M. (2008) Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations. Journal of Climate, 21 (8). pp. 1669-1679. ISSN 1520-0442

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To link to this article DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1992.1


Winter storm-track activity over the Northern Hemisphere and its changes in a greenhouse gas scenario (the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B forcing) are computed from an ensemble of 23 single runs from 16 coupled global climate models (CGCMs). All models reproduce the general structures of the observed climatological storm-track pattern under present-day forcing conditions. Ensemble mean changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing include an increase of baroclinic wave activity over the eastern North Atlantic, amounting to 5%–8% by the end of the twenty-first century. Enhanced activity is also found over the Asian continent and over the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands. At high latitudes and over parts of the subtropics, activity is reduced. Variations of the individual models around the ensemble average signal are not small, with a median of the pattern correlation near r = 0.5. There is, however, no evidence for a link between deviations in present-day climatology and deviations with respect to climate change.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:No Reading authors. Back catalogue items
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:32785
Uncontrolled Keywords:Storm tracks, Ensembles, Northern Hemisphere
Publisher:American Meteorological Society

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