Urban-scale Environmental Prediction Systems
Grimmond, S., Carmicheal, G., Lean, H., Baklanov, A., Leroyer, S., Masson, V., Schluenzen, K.H. and Golding, B. (2015) Urban-scale Environmental Prediction Systems. In: Brunet, G., Jones, S. and Ruti, P. (eds.) Seamless Prediction of the Earth-System: from minutes to months. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, pp. 347-370. ISBN 9789263111562
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Weather, climate, water and related environmental conditions, including air quality, all have profound effects on cities. A growing importance is being attached to understanding and predicting atmospheric conditions and their interactions with other components of the Earth System in cities, at multiple scales. We highlight the need for: (1) development of high-resolution coupled environmental prediction models that include realistic city-specific processes, boundary conditions and fluxes; (2) enhanced observational systems to support (force, constrain, evaluate) these models to provide high quality forecasts for new urban services; (3) provision of meteorological and related environmental variables to aid protection of human health and the environment; (4) new targeted and customized delivery platforms using modern communication techniques, developed with users to ensure that services, advice and warnings result in appropriate action; and (5) development of new skill and capacity to make best use of technologies to deliver new services in complex, challenging and evolving city environments. We highlight the importance of a coordinated and strategic approach that draws on, but does not replicate, past work to maximize benefits to stakeholders.