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Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach

MacLeod, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. (2016) Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (7). pp. 2737-2743. ISSN 1607-7938

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To link to this item DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016

Abstract/Summary

Soil moisture memory is a key component of seasonal predictability. However, uncertainty in current memory estimates is not clear and it is not obvious to what extent these are dependent on model uncertainties. To address this question, we perform a global sensitivity analysis of memory to key hydraulic parameters, using an uncoupled version of the H-TESSEL land surface model. Results show significant dependency of estimates of memory and its uncertainty on these parameters, suggesting that operational seasonal forecasting models using deterministic hydraulic parameter values are likely to display a narrower range of memory than exists in reality. Explicitly incorporating hydraulic parameter uncertainty into models may then give improvements in forecast skill and reliability, as has been shown elsewhere in the literature. Our results also show significant differences with previous estimates of memory uncertainty, warning against placing too much confidence in a single quantification of uncertainty.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:66345
Publisher:European Geosciences Union

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