Accessibility navigation


Projections of tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam under climate change: downscaled HadGEM2-ES using PRECIS 2.1

Wang, C., Liang, J. and Hodges, K. I. (2017) Projections of tropical cyclones affecting Vietnam under climate change: downscaled HadGEM2-ES using PRECIS 2.1. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (705). pp. 1844-1859. ISSN 1477-870X

[img] Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

22MB
[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only

2MB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1002/qj.3046

Abstract/Summary

The potential changes in TC activity, and associated large-scale environmental conditions, for Vietnam and the South China Sea, posed by climate change, are examined using a high resolution regional climate model system - PRECIS 2.1 to downscale the Met Office Hadley Centre CMIP5 model, HadGEM2-ES to a resolution of 25 km (PRECIS_Had2). The ERA-Interim re-analysis is also downscaled to the same resolution (PRECIS_ERAI) for comparison. An objective algorithm is used to identify and track the TCs. The PRECIS_Had2 is evaluated for the period of 1990-2005 by comparing with the PRECIS_ERAI and the observed best track data of TCs. Compared to PRECIS_ERAI, PRECIS_Had2 represents the TC-associated largescale environments reasonably well but shows stronger vertical wind shear over the South China Sea and during the summer south-westerly monsoon. For TCs, PRECIS_Had2 is capable of capturing the TC distribution but shows a notable underestimation of very intense TCs. The analysis of the influence of global warming on the TC activity reveals that PRECIS_Had2 simulates a pronounced seasonal shift of TC activity in a warmer climate for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with an increase in TC activity during winter related to the more favourable large-scale conditions while a decrease in TCs associated with less favourable large-scale conditions is projected in summer.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:70259
Publisher:Royal Meteorological Society

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation