Accessibility navigation


Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

Jewson, S., Ambaum, M. H. P. and Ziehmann, C. (2004) Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty. arXiv (0402027).

Full text not archived in this repository.

Abstract/Summary

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:No
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:7702
Publisher:Cornell University Library

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation