Accessibility navigation


Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones

Hawcroft, M., Walsh, E., Hodges, K. I. and Zappa, G. (2018) Significantly increased extreme precipitation expected in Europe and North America from extratropical cyclones. Environmental Research Letters, 13. 124006. ISSN 1748-9326

[img]
Preview
Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

1MB
[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only

1MB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaed59

Abstract/Summary

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in the mid-latitude storm tracks are key to understanding the impacts of climate warming, but projections of their future location in current climate models are affected by large uncertainty. Here, we show that in spite of this uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to warming, by analysing the behaviour of the storms (or extratropical cyclones) themselves, projections of change in the number of the most intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are substantial and consistent across models. In particular, we show large increases in the frequency of extreme extratropical cyclones (those above the present day 99th percentile of precipitation intensity) by the end of the century. In both Europe and North America, these intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are projected to more than triple in number by the end of the century unless greenhouse gas emissions are mitigated. Such changes in extratropical cyclone behaviour may have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating extratropical cyclones are responsible for many large-scale flooding events, and associated severe economic losses, in these regions.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:80381
Publisher:Institute of Physics

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation