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Predicting sudden stratospheric warming 2018 and its climate impacts with a multi‐model ensemble

Yu Karpechko, A., Charlton-Perez, A., Balmaseda, M., Tyrrell, N. and Vitart, F. (2018) Predicting sudden stratospheric warming 2018 and its climate impacts with a multi‐model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (24). 13,538-13,546. ISSN 0094-8276

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081091

Abstract/Summary

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are significant source of enhanced subseasonal predictability, but whether this source is untapped in operational models remains an open question. Here we report on the prediction of the SSW on 12 February 2018, its dynamical precursors, and surface climate impacts by an ensemble of dynamical forecast models. The ensemble forecast from 1 February predicted 3 times increased odds of an SSW compared to climatology, although the lead time for SSW prediction varied among individual models. Errors in the forecast location of a Ural high and underestimated magnitude of upward wave activity flux reduced SSW forecast skill. Although the SSW's downward influence was not well forecasted, the observed northern Eurasia cold anomaly following SSW was predicted, albeit with a weaker magnitude, due to persistent tropospheric anomalies. The ensemble forecast from 8 February predicted the SSW, its subsequent downward influence, and a long‐lasting cold anomaly at the surface.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:82141
Publisher:American Geophysical Union

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