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Recommendations for improving integration in national end-to-end flood forecasting systems: an overview of the FFIR (flooding from intense rainfall) programme

Flack, D. L. A., Skinner, C. J., Hawkness-Smith, L., O’Donnell, G., Thompson, R. J., Waller, J. A., Chen, A. S., Moloney, J., Largeron, C., Xia, X., Blenkinsop, S., Champion, A. J., Perks, M. T., Quinn, N. and Speight, L. J. (2019) Recommendations for improving integration in national end-to-end flood forecasting systems: an overview of the FFIR (flooding from intense rainfall) programme. Water, 11 (4). 725. ISSN 2073-4441

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To link to this item DOI: 10.3390/w11040725

Abstract/Summary

Recent surface-water and flash floods have caused millions of pounds worth of damage in the UK. These events form rapidly and are difficult to predict due to their short-lived and localised nature. The interdisciplinary Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) programme investigated the feasibility of enhancing the integration of an end-to-end forecasting system for flash and surface-water floods to help increase the lead time for warnings for these events. Here we propose developments to the integration of an operational end-to-end forecasting system based on the findings of the FFIR programme. The suggested developments include methods to improve radar-derived rainfall rates and understanding of the uncertainty in the position of intense rainfall in weather forecasts; the addition of hydraulic modelling components; and novel education techniques to help lead to effective dissemination of flood warnings. We make recommendations for future advances such as research into the propagation of uncertainty throughout the forecast chain. We further propose the creation of closer bonds to the end users to allow for an improved, integrated, end-to-end forecasting system that is easily accessible for users and end users alike, and will ultimately help mitigate the impacts of flooding from intense rainfall by informed and timely action.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:83172
Publisher:MDPI

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