Accessibility navigation


Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing

Watson-Parris, D., Bellouin, N., Deaconu, L., Schutgens, N., Yoshioka, M., Regayre, L. A., Pringle, K. J., Johnson, J. S., Smith, C. J., Carslaw, K. S. and Stier, P. (2020) Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing. Geophysical Research Letters. e2020GL087141. ISSN 0094-8276

[img]
Preview
Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

5MB
[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only

3MB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2020GL087141

Abstract/Summary

The uncertainty in present-day anthropogenic forcing is dominated by uncertainty in the strength of the contribution from aerosol. Much of the uncertainty in the direct aerosol forcing can be attributed to uncertainty in the anthropogenic fraction of aerosol in the present-day atmosphere, due to a lack of historical observations. Here we present a robust relationship between total present-day aerosol optical depth and the anthropogenic contribution across three multi-model ensembles and a large single-model perturbed parameter ensemble. Using observations of aerosol optical depth, we determine a reduced likely range of the anthropogenic component and hence a reduced uncertainty in the direct forcing of aerosol.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:89916
Publisher:American Geophysical Union

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation