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Perturbed biology and physics signatures in a 1-D ocean biogeochemical model ensemble

Anugerahanti, P., Roy, S. and Haines, K. (2020) Perturbed biology and physics signatures in a 1-D ocean biogeochemical model ensemble. Frontiers in Marine Science. ISSN 2296-7745 (In Press)

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Abstract/Summary

Sources of uncertainty in a marine biogeochemical model include input from physical processes and the choice of functional forms representing the strength and dependencies of biogeochemical processes. This study explores characteristic signatures from these uncertainties by generating ensembles from perturbing the biogeochemistry equations and perturbing physical input using a 1-D intermediately-complex model run at five oceanographic stations. Perturbed biogeochemistry ensemble (PBE) produces larger spreads than perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), and distinctly different ensemble variations. Fractions of nitrogen in phytoplankton pool from observations show a larger variability than in any single model-ensemble member, but the PBE spread generally captures this variability, whereas the PPE spread does not. The results show that the PBE method gives a more realistic representation of uncertainty than PPE in our 1D-model setup. Our method needs to be tested in more complex models in order to understand its significance on larger scales.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:91326
Uncontrolled Keywords:Perturbed biogeochemistry ensemble, Ocean biogeochemical model, Ensemble modelling, Structural uncertainty, perturbed physics ensemble
Publisher:Frontiers

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