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Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble

Roberts, M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6128-6979, Camp, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4567-9622, Seddon, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1302-1049, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Vannière, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8600-400X, Mecking, J., Haarsma, R., Bellucci, A., Scoccimarro, E., Caron, L.-P., Chauvin, F., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Moine, M.-P., Putrasahan, D., Roberts, C. D., Senan, R., Zarzycki, C., Ullrich, P. , Yamada, Y., Mizuta, R., Kodama, C., Fu, D., Zhang, Q., Danabasoglu, G., Rosenbloom, N., Wang, H. and Wu, L. (2020) Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (14). e2020GL088662. ISSN 0094-8276

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088662

Abstract/Summary

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

Item Type:Article
Refereed:Yes
Divisions:Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:92403
Uncontrolled Keywords:General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics
Publisher:American Geophysical Union

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