Article

Zsoter, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Prudhomme, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Pappenberger, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting. Journal of Flood Risk Management. ISSN 1753-318X (In Press)

FicchÌ, A. and Stephens, L. (2019) Climate variability alters flood timing across Africa. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (15). pp. 8809-8819. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL081988

Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. and Cloke, H. L. (2019) What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? Environmental Research Communications, 1 (3). ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e

Towner, J., Cloke, H. L., Zsoter, E., Flamig, Z., Hoch, J. M., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. (2019) Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23 (7). pp. 3057-3080. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3057-2019

Zsoter, E., Cloke, H., Stephens, E., De Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Prudhomme, C. and Pappenberger, F. (2019) How well do operational Numerical Weather Prediction configurations represent hydrology? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20 (8). pp. 1533-1552. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0086.1

Stephens, E. M., Spiegelhalter, D. J., Mylne, K. and Harrison, M. (2019) The Met Office weather game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making. Geoscience Communications, 2. pp. 101-116. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019

Emerton, R., Zsoter, E., Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. M., Salamon, P. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11. pp. 3327-3346. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-118

Coughlan de Perez, E., Van Aalst, M., Bischiniotis, K., Mason, S., Nissan, H., Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. and van den Hurk, B. (2018) Global predictability of temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5). 054017. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a/

Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2057-2072. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (6). pp. 1715-1729. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1

Emerton, R., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E. M., Zsoter, E., Woolnough, S. J. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard. Nature Communications, 8. 14796. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14796

Coughlan de Perez, E., Stephens, E., Bischiniotis, K., van Aalst, M., van den Hurk, B., Mason, S., Nissan, H. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 (9). pp. 4517-4524. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017

Coughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M. K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., Jongman, B., Lopez, A., Mason, S., Mendler de Suarez, J., Pappenberger, F., Rueth, A., Stephens, E., Suarez, P., Wagemaker, J. and Zsoter, E. (2016) Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (9). pp. 3549-3560. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-163

Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S.-J. and Pappenberger, F. (2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (8). pp. 3109-3128. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A. H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Baugh, C. and Cloke, H. L. (2016) Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3 (3). pp. 391-418. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1137

Stephens, E., Day, J. J., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. (2015) Precipitation and floodiness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (23). pp. 10316-10323. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066779

Stephens, E. and Bates, P. (2015) Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions. Hydrological Processes, 29 (19). pp. 4264-4283. ISSN 08856087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10451

Stephens, E. and Cloke, H. (2014) Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geographical Journal, 180 (4). pp. 310-316. ISSN 1475-4959 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12103

Wong, J. S., Freer, J. E., Bates, P. D. and Stephens, E. M. (2014) Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding. Hydrological Processes, 29 (2). pp. 261-279. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10148

Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. M., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Demeritt, D., Van Andel, S. J., Wetterhall, F. and Alfieri, L. (2013) Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 132-146. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9253

Stephens, E., Schumann, G. and Bates, P. (2013) Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation. Hydrological Processes, 28 (18). pp. 4928-4937. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9979

Stephens, E. M., Edwards, T. L. and Demeritt, D. (2012) Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3 (5). pp. 409-426. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.187

Stephens, E. M., Bates, P. D., Freer, J. and Mason, D. (2012) The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models. Journal of Hydrology, 414-41. pp. 162-173. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.040 (414-415, 162-173)

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Hirpa, F. A., Pappenberger, F., Arnal, L., Baugh, C. A., Cloke, H. L., Dutra, E., Emerton, R. E., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., Smith, P. J., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Zsoter, E. and Thielen-del Pozo, J. (2018) Global flood forecasting for averting disasters worldwide. In: Schumann, G. J.-P., Bates, P. D., Apel, H. and Aronica, G. T. (eds.) Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting. Geophysical Monograph Series (233). Wiley, pp. 205-228. ISBN 9781119217862 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119217886.ch12