Article

Wanzala, M. A., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Ficchi, A. (2025) Hydrological model preselection with a filter sequence for the national flood forecasting system in Kenya. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 18 (1). e12846. ISSN 1753-318X doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12846

Kelder, T., Heinrich, D., Klok, L., Thompson, V., Goulart, H. M. D., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Slater, L., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Wilby, R. L., Coughlan de Perez, E., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Burt, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5125-6546, van den Hurk, B., De Vries, H., van der Wiel, K., Schipper, L., Baez, A. C., van Bueren, E. and Fischer, E. M. (2025) How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather. Nature Communications, 16. 2382. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

Emerton, R., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Amelie, V., Mustafa, M., Rakotomavo, Z., Coughlan de Perez, E., Magnusson, L. and Vidale, P.-L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2024) How well can global ensemble forecasts predict tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean? Meteorological Applications, 31 (3). e2195. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: 10.1002/met.2195

Heinrich, D., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Coughlan de Perez, E. (2024) More than Magnitude: towards a multidimensional understanding of unprecedented weather to better support disaster management. Water Security, 23. 100181. ISSN 2468-3124 doi: 10.1016/j.wasec.2024.100181

Hossain, S., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Ficchi, A., Gupta, H., Speight, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Hassan, A. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2023) A decision-led evaluation approach for flood forecasting system developments: an application to the Global Flood Awareness System in Bangladesh. Journal of Flood Risk Management. e12959. ISSN 1753-318X doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12959

Speight, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Hawker, L., Baugh, C., Neal, J., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Grey, S., Titley, H., Marsden, K., Sumner, T., Ficchi, A., Prudhomme, C., Archer, L., Bazo, J., Dambo, J., Dolan, S., Huhn, A. L., Moschini, F., Savage, J., Smith, A., Towner, J. and Wanzala, M. (2023) Recommendations to improve the interpretation of global flood forecasts to support international humanitarian operations for tropical cyclones. Journal of Flood Risk Management. e12952. ISSN 1753-318X doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12952

Mitheu, F., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Petty, C., Ficchì, A., Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411 and Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 (2023) Impact-based flood early warning for rural livelihoods in Uganda. Weather, Climate, and Society, 15 (3). pp. 525-539. ISSN 1948-8335 doi: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0089.1

Mitheu, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1655-449X, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Ficchì, A., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 and Petty, C. (2023) The utility of impact data in flood forecast verification for anticipatory actions: case studies from Uganda and Kenya. Journal of Flood Risk Management. e12911. ISSN 1753-318X doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12911

Coughlan de Perez, E., Fuentes, I., Jack, C., Kruczkiewicz, A., Pinto, I. and Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2022) Different types of drought under climate change or geoengineering: systematic review of societal implications. Frontiers in climate, 4. 959519. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: 10.3389/fclim.2022.959519

Mitheu, F., Petty, C., Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Ciampi, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1240-7695, Butsatsa, J. and Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556 (2022) Identifying the barriers and opportunities in the provision and use of weather and climate information for flood risk preparedness: the case of Katakwi District, Uganda. Frontiers in climate, 4. 908662. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: 10.3389/fclim.2022.908662

Wanzala, M. A., Ficchi, A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Badjana, H. M. and Lavers, D. A. (2022) Assessment of global reanalysis precipitation for hydrological modelling in data–scarce regions: a case study of Kenya. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 41. 101105. ISSN 2214-5818 doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101105

Zsoter, E., Arduini, G., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2022) Hydrological impact of the new ECMWF multi-Layer snow scheme. Atmosphere, 13 (5). 727. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: 10.3390/atmos13050727

Coughlan de Perez, E., Stephens, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, van Aalst, M., Bazo, J., Fournier-Tombs, E., Funk, S., Hess, J., Ranger, N. and Lowe, R. (2022) Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts: best practice for linking models to policymaking. International Journal of Forecasting, 38 (2). pp. 521-526. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.08.003

Ficchi, A., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Neves, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1201-5720, Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Coughlan de Perez, E., Zsoter, E., Pinto, I., Meque, A. and Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2021) Beyond El Niño: unsung climate modes drive African floods. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33. 100345. ISSN 2212-0947 doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100345

Towner, J., Ficchi, A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2021) Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25. pp. 3875-3895. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-25-3875-2021

Titley, H. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Harrigan, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C., Robbins, J. C., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Zsoter, E. (2021) Key factors influencing the severity of fluvial flood hazard from tropical cyclones. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (7). pp. 1801-1817. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0250.1

Zsoter, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Prudhomme, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Pappenberger, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 13 (4). e12658. ISSN 1753-318X doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12658

Emerton, R., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Ficchi, A., Hawker, L., de Wit, S., Speight, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8700-157X, Prudhomme, C., Rundell, P., West, R., Neal, J., Cuna, J., Harrigan, S., Titley, H., Magnusson, L., Pappenberger, F., Klingaman, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303 and Stephens, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2020) Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: a critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50. 101811. ISSN 2212-4209 doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811

Arnal, L., Anspoks, L., Manson, S., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Norton, T., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wolfenden, L. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) “Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England. Geoscience Communications, 3. pp. 203-232. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: 10.5194/gc-3-203-2020

Towner, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Lavado, W., Santini, W., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2020) Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: a review. Meteorological Applications, 27 (5). e1949. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: 10.1002/met.1949

FicchÌ, A. and Stephens, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2019) Climate variability alters flood timing across Africa. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (15). pp. 8809-8819. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2019GL081988

Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2019) What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? Environmental Research Communications, 1 (3). ISSN 2515-7620 doi: 10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e

Towner, J., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Zsoter, E., Flamig, Z., Hoch, J. M., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2019) Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23 (7). pp. 3057-3080. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-23-3057-2019

Zsoter, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, De Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Prudhomme, C. and Pappenberger, F. (2019) How well do operational Numerical Weather Prediction configurations represent hydrology? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20 (8). pp. 1533-1552. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0086.1

Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Spiegelhalter, D. J., Mylne, K. and Harrison, M. (2019) The Met Office weather game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making. Geoscience Communications, 2. pp. 101-116. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: 10.5194/gc-2-101-2019

Emerton, R., Zsoter, E., Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Salamon, P. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11. pp. 3327-3346. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018

Coughlan de Perez, E., Van Aalst, M., Bischiniotis, K., Mason, S., Nissan, H., Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and van den Hurk, B. (2018) Global predictability of temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5). 054017. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a

Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Krzeminski, B. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2057-2072. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. (2017) An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (6). pp. 1715-1729. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1

Emerton, R., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Zsoter, E., Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard. Nature Communications, 8. 14796. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: 10.1038/ncomms14796

Coughlan de Perez, E., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Bischiniotis, K., van Aalst, M., van den Hurk, B., Mason, S., Nissan, H. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 (9). pp. 4517-4524. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017

Coughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M. K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., Jongman, B., Lopez, A., Mason, S., Mendler de Suarez, J., Pappenberger, F., Rueth, A., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Suarez, P., Wagemaker, J. and Zsoter, E. (2016) Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (9). pp. 3549-3560. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-2016-163

Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S.-J. and Pappenberger, F. (2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (8). pp. 3109-3128. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A. H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Baugh, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2016) Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3 (3). pp. 391-418. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: 10.1002/wat2.1137

Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Day, J. J., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2015) Precipitation and floodiness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (23). pp. 10316-10323. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2015GL066779

Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Bates, P. (2015) Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions. Hydrological Processes, 29 (19). pp. 4264-4283. ISSN 08856087 doi: 10.1002/hyp.10451

Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2014) Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geographical Journal, 180 (4). pp. 310-316. ISSN 1475-4959 doi: 10.1111/geoj.12103

Wong, J. S., Freer, J. E., Bates, P. D. and Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563 (2014) Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding. Hydrological Processes, 29 (2). pp. 261-279. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: 10.1002/hyp.10148

Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Demeritt, D., Van Andel, S. J., Wetterhall, F. and Alfieri, L. (2013) Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 132-146. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: 10.1002/hyp.9253

Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Schumann, G. and Bates, P. (2013) Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation. Hydrological Processes, 28 (18). pp. 4928-4937. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: 10.1002/hyp.9979

Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Edwards, T. L. and Demeritt, D. (2012) Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3 (5). pp. 409-426. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: 10.1002/wcc.187

Stephens, E. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Bates, P. D., Freer, J. and Mason, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6092-6081 (2012) The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models. Journal of Hydrology, 414-41. pp. 162-173. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.040 (414-415, 162-173)

Book or Report Section

Hirpa, F. A., Pappenberger, F., Arnal, L., Baugh, C. A., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Dutra, E., Emerton, R. E., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., Smith, P. J., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wetterhall, F., Zsoter, E. and Thielen-del Pozo, J. (2018) Global flood forecasting for averting disasters worldwide. In: Schumann, G. J.-P., Bates, P. D., Apel, H. and Aronica, G. T. (eds.) Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting. Geophysical Monograph Series (233). Wiley, pp. 205-228. ISBN 9781119217862 doi: 10.1002/9781119217886.ch12

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Kimutai, J., Vautard, R., Zachariah, M., Tolasz, R., Šustková, V., Cassou, C., Skalák, P., Clarke, B., Haslinger, K., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Raju, E., Baumgart, N., Thalheimer, L., Chojnicki, B., Otto, F., Koren, G., Philip, S., Kew, S., Haro, P., Vibert, J. and Von Weissenberg, A., (2024) Climate change and high exposure increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe. Report. World Weather Attribution doi: 10.25561/114694

Pillosu, F. M., Bucherie, A., Kruczkiewicz, A., Haiden, T., Baugh, C., Hultquist, C., Vergara, H., Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Prudhomme, C. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, (2024) Can global rainfall forecasts identify areas at flash flood risk? Proof of concept for Ecuador. Technical Report. ECMWF doi: 10.21957/8e2dd559f0

Zsótér, E., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Prudhomme, C., Harrigan, S., de Rosnay, P., Munoz-Sabater, J. and Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, (2020) Trends in the GloFAS-ERA5 river discharge reanalysis. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 871. Technical Report. ECMWF doi: 10.21957/p9jrh0xp