Items where Author is "Hawkins, Professor Ed"

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Collins, M., Beverley, J. D., Bracegirdle, T. J., Catto, J., McCrystall, M., Dittus, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Freychet, N., Grist, J., Hegerl, G. C., Holland, P. R., Holmes, C., Josey, S. A., Joshi, M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Lo, E., Lord, N., Mitchell, D., Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Priestley, M. D. K., Scaife, A., Screen, J., Senior, N., Sexton, D., Shuckburgh, E., Siegert, S., Simpson, C., Stephenson, D. B., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Thompson, V., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 and Woollings, T. (2024) Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world. Frontiers in Science, 2. 1340323. ISSN 2813-6330 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fsci.2024.1340323

King, A. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9006-5745, Harrington, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1699-6119, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Paik, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3655-4227, Lieber, R., Min, S.-K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6749-010X and Borowiak, A. R. (2024) Emergence of multivariate climate change signals. Environmental Research Letters, 19 (9). 094018. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad677f

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Arnell, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Hannaford, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2024) GC insights: communicating long-term changes in local climate risk using a physically plausible causal chain. Geoscience Communication, 7 (3). pp. 161-165. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024

Yule, E. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5492-2217, Hegerl, G. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4159-1295, Schurer, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9176-3622, Ballinger, A. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3704-1976 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2024) Using analogues to predict changes in future UK heatwaves. Environmental Research: Climate. ISSN 2752-5295 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad57e3 (In Press)

Müller, O. V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9943-8368, McGuire, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6592-4966, Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2024) River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28 (10). pp. 2179-2201. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024

Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Collins, M., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2024) Reversal of projected European summer precipitation decline in a stabilizing climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (6). e2023GL107448. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107448

Wallis, E. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2475-0899, Osborn, T. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799, Taylor, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3473-3478, Jones, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5032-5493, Joshi, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2024) Quantifying exposure biases in early instrumental land surface air temperature observations. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8401

Luterbacher, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8569-0973, Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4065-6883, Wilkinson, C., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Teleti, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-8488, Lorrey, A., Brönnimann, S., Hechler, P., Velikou, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7897-4660 and Xoplaki, E. (2024) The importance and scientific value of long weather and climate records; examples of historical marine data efforts across the globe. Climate, 12 (3). 39. ISSN 2225-1154 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12030039

Craig, P. M. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2024) Digitizing observations from the 1861–1875 Met Office Daily Weather Reports using citizen scientist volunteers. Geoscience Data Journal. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.236

King, A. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9006-5745, Douglas, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5411-7656, Harrington, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1699-6119, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Borowiak, A. R. (2023) Climate change emergence over people’s lifetimes. Environmental Research: Climate, 2 (4). 041002. ISSN 2752-5295 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aceff2

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Compo, G. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5199-9633 and Sardeshmukh, P. D. (2023) ESD ideas: translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world. Earth System Dynamics, 14 (5). pp. 1081-1084. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023

Tett, S. F. B., Cha, Y., Donovan, K., Geffers, G.-M. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) The impact of an extreme cloud burst on Edinburgh Castle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104 (10). E1807-E1816. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0196.1

Teleti, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-8488, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Wood, K. R. (2023) Digitizing weather observations from World War II US naval ship logbooks. Geoscience Data Journal. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.222

Lehner, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4632-9701, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Pendergrass, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2542-1461 and Moore, F. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3866-9642 (2023) New potential to reduce uncertainty in regional climate projections by combining physical and socio‐economic constraints. AGU Advances, 4 (4). e2023AV000887. ISSN 2576-604X doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV000887

Harvey, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (10). pp. 4424-4441. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Alexander, L. V. and Allan, R. J. (2023) Millions of digitized historical sea-level pressure observations rediscovered. Geoscience Data Journal, 10 (3). pp. 385-395. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.163

Yule, E. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5492-2217, Hegerl, G., Schurer, A. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) Using early extremes to place the 2022 UK heat waves into historical context. Atmospheric Science Letters, 24 (7). e1159. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1159

O'Kane, T. J., Scaife, A. A., Kushnir, Y., Brookshaw, A., Buontempo, C., Carlin, D., Connell, R. K., Doblas-Reyes, F., Dunstone, N., Förster, K., Graça, A., Hobday, A. J., Kitsios, V., van der Laan, L., Lockwood, J., Merryfield, W. J., Paxian, A., Payne, M. R., Reader, M. C., Saville, G. R., Smith, D., Solaraju-Murali, B., Caltabiano, N., Carman, J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Keenlyside, N., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Raphael, M., Sparrow, M. and Wu, B. (2023) Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions. Frontiers in Climate, 5. ISSN 2624-9553 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Burt, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5125-6546, McCarthy, M., Murphy, C., Ross, C., Baldock, M., Brazier, J., Hersee, G., Huntley, J., Meats, R., O'Grady, J., Scrimgeour, I. and Silk, T. (2023) Millions of historical monthly rainfall observations taken in the UK and Ireland rescued by citizen scientists. Geoscience Data Journal, 10 (2). pp. 246-261. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.157

Grose, M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8012-9960, Boschat, G., Trewin, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8186-7885, Round, V., Ashcroft, L., King, A. D., Narsey, S. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) Australian climate warming: observed change from 1850 and global temperature targets. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 73 (1). pp. 30-43. ISSN 2206-5865 doi: https://doi.org/10.1071/ES22018

Douglas, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5411-7656, Harrington, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1699-6119, Joshi, M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Revell, L. E. and Frame, D. J. (2023) Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (1). 014013. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca91e

Joshi, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811, Hall, R. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3665-6322, Stevens, D. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7283-4405 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2023) The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends. Earth System Dynamics, 14 (2). pp. 443-455. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023

Harrison, R. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0693-347X, Nicoll, K. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5580-6325, Joshi, M. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2022) Empirical evidence for multidecadal scale global atmospheric electric circuit modulation by the El Niño-southern oscillation. Environmental Research Letters, 17 (12). 124048. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca68c

Ortega, P., Blockley, E. W., Køltzow, M., Massonnet, F., Sandu, I., Svensson, G., Acosta Navarro, J. C., Arduini, G., Batté, L., Bazile, E., Chevallier, M., Cruz-García, R., Day, J. J., Fichefet, T., Flocco, D., Gupta, M., Hartung, K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hinrichs, C., Magnusson, L., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Pérez-Montero, S., Ponsoni, L., Semmler, T., Smith, D., Sterlin, J., Tjernström, M., Välisuo, I. and Jung, T. (2022) Improving Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction: recommendations for future forecast systems evolution from the European project APPLICATE. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103 (10). E2203-E2213. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0083.1

Lorrey, A. M., Pearce, P. R., Allan, R., Wilkinson, C., Woolley, J.-M., Judd, E., Mackay, S., Rawhat, S., Slivinski, L., Wilkinson, S., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Quesnel, P. and Compo, G. P. (2022) Meteorological data rescue: citizen science lessons learned from Southern Weather Discovery. Patterns, 3 (6). 100495. ISSN 2666-3899 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2022.100495

Osso, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Maraun, D. (2022) Emerging new climate extremes over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 58. pp. 487-501. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05917-3

Sandu, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1215-3288, Massonnet, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4697-5781, Achter, G., Acosta Navarro, J. C., Arduini, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6564-1699, Bauer, P., Blockley, E., Bormann, N., Chevallier, M., Day, J., Dahoui, M., Fichefet, T., Flocco, D., Jung, T., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Laroche, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4886-5535, Lawrence, H., Kristiansen, J., Moreno‐Chamarro, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7931-5149, Ortega, P., Poan, E., Ponsoni, L. and Randriamampianina, R. (2021) The potential of numerical prediction systems to support the design of Arctic observing systems: insights from the APPLICATE and YOPP projects. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741). pp. 3863-3877. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4182

Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Smith, D. M. and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2021) Drivers of recent North Pacific decadal variability: the role of aerosol forcing. Earth's Future, 9 (12). e2021EF002249. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002249

King, A. D., Kale Sniderman, J. M., Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Brown, J. R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Ziehn, T. (2021) Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels. Nature Climate Change, 11. pp. 1010-1013. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01225-0

Baker, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s due to climate change? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741). pp. 4143-4162. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4172

Dacre, H. F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-9126, Western, L. M., Say, D., O'Doherty, S., Arnold, T., Rennick, C. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Detectability of COVID-19 global emissions reductions in local CO2 concentration measurements. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (9). 094043. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1eda

Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Whitaker, J. S., McColl, C., Allan, R. J., Brohan, P., Yin, X., Smith, C. A., Spencer, L. J., Vose, R. S., Rohrer, M., Conroy, R. P., Schuster, D. C., Kennedy, J. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Domínguez-Castro, F., Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Jones, P. D., Kubota, H., Lee, T. C., Lorrey, A. M., Luterbacher, J., Mock, C. J., Przybylak, R. K., Pudmenzky, C., Slonosky, V. C., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Wang, X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K. and Wyszyński, P. (2021) An evaluation of the performance of the twentieth century reanalysis version 3. Journal of Climate, 34 (4). pp. 1417-1438. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1

Shonk, J. K. P., Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Chevuturi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2020) Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 20 (23). pp. 14903-14915. ISSN 1680-7375 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

Craig, P. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9213-4599 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2020) Digitizing observations from the Met Office Daily Weather Reports for 1900–1910 using citizen scientist volunteers. Geoscience Data Journal, 7 (2). pp. 116-134. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.93

Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Liu, Z., Samset, B. H., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Lund, M. T., Nordling, K., Undorf, S., Bollasina, M., Ekman, A. M. L., Krishnan, S., Merikanto, J. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2020) Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20 (20). pp. 11955-11977. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2020) ESD Ideas: global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments. Earth System Dynamics, 11. pp. 751-754. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Smith, C. J., Andrews, M. B. and Forster, P. M. (2020) Sensitivity of historical climate simulations to uncertain aerosol forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13). e2019GL085806. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085806

Lehner, F., Deser, C., Maher, N., Marotzke, J., Fischer, E. M., Brunner, L., Knutti, R. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. Earth System Dynamics, 11 (2). pp. 491-508. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Frame, D., Harrington, L., Joshi, M., King, A., Rojas, M. and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2020) Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familiar to the unknown. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (6). e2019GL086259. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086259

Eunice Lo, Y. T., Mitchell, D. M., Bohnenstengel, S. I., Collins, M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hegerl, G. C., Joshi, M. and Stott, P. A. (2020) U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England’s major cities. Journal of Climate, 33 (20). pp. 9015-9030. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1

Wood, R. A., Rodríguez, J. M., Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Jackson, L. C. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2019) Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics, 53 (11). pp. 6815-6834. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04956-1

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Burt, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5125-6546, Brohan, P., Lockwood, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7397-2172, Richardson, H., Roy, M. and Thomas, S. (2019) Hourly weather observations from the Scottish Highlands (1883–1904) rescued by volunteer citizen scientists. Geoscience Data Journal, 6 (2). pp. 160-173. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.79

Valdivieso Da Costa, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1738-7016, Owens, M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2061-2453, Scott, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6411-5649, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Burt, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5125-6546 and Craig, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9213-4599 (2019) Thunderstorm occurrence at ten sites across Great Britain over 1884–1993. Geoscience Data Journal, 6 (2). pp. 222-233. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.75

Boult, V. L., Fishlock, V., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Moss, C., Lee, P. C. and Sibly, R. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6828-3543 (2019) Human‐driven habitat conversion is a more immediate threat to Amboseli elephants than climate change. Conservation Science and Practice, 1 (9). pp. 1-10. ISSN 2578-4854 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.87

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Fæhn, T. and Fuglestvedt, J. (2019) The climate spiral demonstrates the power of sharing creative ideas. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (5). pp. 753-756. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0228.1

Marchi, S., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Zunz, V., Tietsche, S., Day, J. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2019) Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models. Climate Dynamics, 52 (5-6). pp. 2775-2797. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2

Kushnir, Y., Scaife, A. A., Arritt, R., Balsamo, G., Boer, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Kimoto, M., Kolli, R. K., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Matthes, K., Müller, W. A., O'Kane, T., Perlwitz, J., Power, S., Raphael, M., Shimpo, A., Smith, D., Tuma, M. and Wu, B. (2019) Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate. Nature Climate Change, 9. pp. 94-101. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

Hegerl, G. C., Brönnimann, S., Cowan, T., Friedman, A. R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Iles, C., Müller, W., Schurer, A. and Undorf, S. (2019) Causes of climate change over the historical record. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (12). 123006. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557

Burt, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5125-6546 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2019) Near-zero humidities on Ben Nevis, Scotland, revealed by pioneering 19th-century observers and modern volunteers. International Journal of Climatology, 39 (11). pp. 4451-4466. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6084

Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Giese, B. S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Yin, X., Vose, R., Titchner, H., Kennedy, J., Spencer, L. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Crouthamel, R., Domínguez‐Castro, F., Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Jones, P. D., Jourdain, S., Kaplan, A., Kubota, H., Blancq, F. L., Lee, T.‐C., Lorrey, A., Luterbacher, J., Maugeri, M., Mock, C. J., Moore, G.W. K., Przybylak, R., Pudmenzky, C., Reason, C., Slonosky, V. C., Smith, C. A., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Valente, M. A., Wang, X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K. and Wyszyński, P. (2019) Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145 (724). pp. 2876-2908. ISSN 0035-9009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Bilbao, R., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N. J., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., Matei, D., Meehl, G. A., Menegoz, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Rixen, M., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., Tuma, M., Wyser, K., Yang, X. and Yeager, S. (2018) Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (21). pp. 11895-11903. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079362

Stammer, D., Bracco, A., Braconnot, P., Brasseur, G. P., Griffies, S. M. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2018) Science directions in a post-COP21-world of transient climate change: enabling regional to local predictions in support of reliable climate information. Earth's Future, 6 (11). pp. 1498-1507. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000979

Cassou, C., Kushnir, Y., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Pirani, A., Kucharski, F., Kang, I.-S. and Caltabiano, N. (2018) Decadal climate variability and predictability: challenges and opportunities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (3). pp. 479-490. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0286.1

Mora, C., Spirandelli, D., Franklin, E. C., Lynham, J., Kantar, M. B., Miles, W., Smith, C. Z., Freel, K., Moy, J., Louis, L. V., Barba, E. W., Bettinger, K., Frazier, A. G., Colburn IX, J. F., Hanasaki, N., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hirabayashi, Y., Knorr, W., Little, C. M., Emanuel, K., Sheffield, J., Patz, J. A. and Hunter, C. L. (2018) Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions. Nature Climate Change, 8. pp. 1062-1071. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6

Schurer, A. P., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Mann, M. E., Scott, V. and Tett, S. F. B. (2018) Interpretations of the Paris climate target. Nature Geoscience, 11. pp. 220-221. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8

Owens, M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2061-2453, Lockwood, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7397-2172, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Usoskin, I., Jones, G. S., Barnard, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9876-4612, Schurer, A. and Fasullo, J. (2017) The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 7. A33. ISSN 2115-7251 doi: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2017034

Harrington, L. J., Frame, D. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Joshi, M. (2017) Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (11). 114039. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa95ae

Bethke, I., Outten, S., Otterå, O. H., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Wagner, S., Sigl, M. and Thorne, P. (2017) Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability. Nature Climate Change, 7 (11). pp. 799-805. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3394

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Ortega, P., Suckling, E., Schurer, A., Hegerl, G., Jones, P., Joshi, M., Osborn, T. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Mignot, J., Thorne, P. and van Oldenborgh, G. J. (2017) Estimating changes in global temperature since the preindustrial period. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98 (9). pp. 1841-1856. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0007.1

Melia, N., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Day, J. J. (2017) Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (8). ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60

Santer, B. D., Fyfe, J. C., Pallotta, G., Flato, G. M., Meehl, G. A., England, M. H., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Mann, M. E., Painter, J. F., Bonfils, C., Cvijanovic, I., Mears, C., Wentz, F. J., Po-Chedley, S., Fu, Q. and Zou, C.-Z. (2017) Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates. Nature Geoscience, 10 (7). pp. 478-485. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2973

Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. R., Powell, F. E., Geronimo, R. C., Bielecki, C. R., Counsell, C. W. W., Dietrich, B. S., Johnston, E. T., Louis, L. V., Lucas, M. P., McKenzie, M. M., Shea, A. G., Tseng, H., Giambelluca, T. W., Leon, L. R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Trauernicht, C. (2017) Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Climate Change, 7 (7). pp. 501-506. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322

Suckling, E. B., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Eden, J. M. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2017) An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts. Climate Dynamics, 48 (9). pp. 3115-3138. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3255-8

Lockwood, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7397-2172, Owens, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2061-2453, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Jones, G. S. and Usoskin, I. (2017) Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age. Astronomy & Geophysics, 58 (2). 2.17-2.23. ISSN 1366-8781 doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/astrogeo/atx057

Volpi, D., Guemas, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Nichols, N. K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-5220 (2017) Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach. Climate Dynamics, 48 (5). pp. 1841-1853. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3176-6

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Shaffrey, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Stevens, D. P., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Polo, I., Stevens, I., Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Lister, G., Iwi, A., Smith, D. and Stephens, A. (2017) Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation. Climate Dynamics, 48 (1). pp. 297-311. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x

Schurer, A. P., Mann, M. E., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Tett, S. F. B. and Hegerl, G. C. (2017) Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals. Nature Climate Change, 7 (8). pp. 563-567. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3345

Frame, D., Joshi, M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Harrington, L. J. and de Roiste, M. (2017) Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates. Nature Climate Change, 7 (6). pp. 407-411. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3297

Richardson, M., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Stolpe, M. B. (2016) Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth. Nature Climate Change, 6 (10). pp. 931-935. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3066

Melia, N., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2016) Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (18). pp. 9720-9728. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315

Anderson, T. R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Jones, P. D. (2016) CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models. Endeavour, 40 (3). pp. 178-187. ISSN 0160-9327 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.endeavour.2016.07.002

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2016) Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97 (6). pp. 963-980. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1

Day, J. J., Tietsche, S., Collins, M., Goessling, H. F., Guemas, V., Guillory, A., Hurlin, W. J., Ishii, M., Keeley, S. P. E., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Sigmond, M., Tatebe, H. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2016) The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1. Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (6). pp. 2255-2270. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644 and Stainforth, D. A. (2016) Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections. Climate Dynamics, 46 (11). pp. 3807-3819. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8

Harrington, L. J., Frame, D. J., Fischer, E. M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Joshi, M. and Jones, C. D. (2016) Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5). 055007. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007

Holmes, C. R., Woollings, T., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and de Vries, H. (2016) Robust future changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection. Journal of Climate, 29 (6). pp. 2221-2236. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00735.1

Goessling, H. F., Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Jung, T. (2016) Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (4). pp. 1642-1650. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067232

Fyfe, J. C., Meehl, G. A., England, M. H., Mann, M. E., Santer, B. D., Flato, G. M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Gillett, N. P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y. and Swart, N. C. (2016) Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nature Climate Change, 6 (3). pp. 224-228. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938

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Tietsche, S., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Day, J. J. (2016) Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate. Journal of Climate, 29 (1). pp. 331-346. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0421.1

Guemas, V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Chevallier, M., Day, J. J., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fučkar, N., Germe, A., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Keeley, S., Koenigk, T., Salas y Mélia, D. and Tietsche, S. (2016) A review on Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (695). pp. 546-561. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2401

Good, P., Booth, B. B. B., Chadwick, R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Jonko, A. and Lowe, J. A. (2016) Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming. Nature Communications, 7. 13667. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13667

Eden, J., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Suckling, E. B. (2015) A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction. Geoscientific Model Development, 8 (12). pp. 3947-3973. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

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Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Suckling, E. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2015) What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373. 20140426. ISSN 1364-503X doi: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0426

Allison, L., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Woollings, T. (2015) An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics, 44 (1-2). pp. 163-190. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2271-9

King, A. D., Donat, M. G., Fischer, E. M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Alexander, L. V., Karoly, D. J., Dittus, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869, Lewis, S. C. and Perkins, S. E. (2015) The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (9). 094015. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015

Xie, S.-P., Deser, C., Vecchi, G. A., Collins, M., Delworth, T. L., Hall, A., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Johnson, N. C., Cassou, C., Giannini, A. and Watanabe, M. (2015) Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nature Climate Change, 5 (10). pp. 921-930. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2689

Cowtan, K., Hausfather, Z., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Jacobs, P., Mann, M. E., Miller, S. K., Steinman, B. A., Stolpe, M. B. and Way, R. G. (2015) Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (15). pp. 6526-6534. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064888

Swart, N. C., Fyfe, J. C., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Kay, J. E. and Jahn, A. (2015) Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends. Nature Climate Change, 5 (2). pp. 86-89. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2483

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Anderson, B. T., Lintner, B. R., Langenbrunner, B., Neelin, J. D., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Syktus, J. (2015) Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4). pp. 1190-1196. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062593

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Fischer, E. M., Sedláček, J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Knutti, R. (2014) Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (23). pp. 8554-8562. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062018

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Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Joshi, M. and Frame, D. (2014) Wetter then drier in some tropical areas. Nature Climate Change, 4 (8). pp. 646-647. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2299

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Day, J. J., Tietsche, S. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2014) Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: initialization month dependence. Journal of Climate, 27 (12). pp. 4371-4390. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Smith, D. (2014) The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 27 (8). pp. 2931-2947. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00473.1

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Edwards, T. and McNeall, D. (2014) Pause for thought. Nature Climate Change, 4 (3). pp. 154-156. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2150

Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., Schneider, E., Smith, D., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Teng, H., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G. and Yeager, S. (2014) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (2). pp. 243-267. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1

Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Hodson, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2014) Atlantic overturning in decline? Nature Geoscience, 7 (1). pp. 2-3. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2050

Tietsche, S., Day, J.J., Guemas, V., Hurlin, W. J., Keeley, S.P.E., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Collins, M. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2014) Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea-ice predictability in current GCMs. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (3). pp. 1035-1043. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058755

Wilby, R. L., Dawson, C. W., Murphy, C., O’Connor, P. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2014) The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications. Climate Research, 61 (3). pp. 259-276. ISSN 0936-577X doi: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01254

Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Boer, G. J., Caian, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Guemas, V., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hazeleger, W., Hermanson, L., Ho, C. K., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Lean, J., Matei, D., Merryfield, W. J., Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, A., Wouters, B. and Wyser, K. (2013) Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (11-12). pp. 2875-2888. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X, Bröcker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M. and Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Jones, P. D. (2013) On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (677). pp. 1961-1963. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2178

Ba, J., Keenlyside, N. S., Park, W., Latif, M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Ding, H. (2013) A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 41 (7-8). pp. 2133-2144. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1633-4

Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G., Gonzalez, P., Kharin, V., Merryfield, W., Deser, C., Mason, S. J., Kirtman, B. P., Msadek, R., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Fricker, T., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene, A. M., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I. and Delworth, T. (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Climate Dynamics, 40 (1-2). pp. 245-272. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2

Koehler, A.-K., Challinor, A. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Asseng, S. (2013) Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034016. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034016

Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Underwood, F. M. (2013) Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41 (3-4). pp. 917-935. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9

Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Keeley, S. P. E., West, A., Ridley, J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Hewitt, H. T. (2013) Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections. Climate Dynamics, 40 (11-12). pp. 2849-2865. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1512-z

Vermeulen, S. J., Challinor, A. J., Thornton, P. K., Campbell, B. M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J. M., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Laderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Nicklin, K. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Smith, D. R. (2013) Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 (21). pp. 8357-8362. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1219441110

Booth, B. B. B., Bernie, D., McNeall, D., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Caesar, J., Boulton, C., Friedlingstein, P. and Sexton, D. M. H. (2013) Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models. Earth System Dynamics, 4 (1). pp. 95-108. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Osborne, T. M., Ho, C. K. and Challinor, A. J. (2013) Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170. pp. 19-31. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Fricker, T. E., Challinor, A. J., Ferro, C. A. T., Ho, C. K. and Osborne, T. M. (2013) Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s. Global Change Biology, 19 (3). pp. 937-947. ISSN 1365-2486 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12069

van Oldenborgh, G. J., Doblas Reyes, F. J., Drijfhout, S. S. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2013) Reliability of regional climate model trends. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014055. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014055

Stott, P., Good, P., Jones, G., Gillett, N. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2013) The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1). 014024. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014024

Vecchi, G. A., Msadek, R., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., Guilyardi, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2255-8625, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Karspeck, A. R., Mignot, J., Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Rosati, A. and Zhang, R. (2012) Comment on “Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N”. Science, 338 (6107). p. 604. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1222566

Chalmers, N., Highwood, E. J., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493 (2012) Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (18). L18709. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052848

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Vidale, P. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1800-8460 (2012) Meteorology: Counting the coming storms. Nature Climate Change, 2 (8). pp. 574-575. ISSN 1758-6798 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1639

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2012) Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (1). L01702. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050087

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Smith, D. and Keenlyside, N. (2011) Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12). pp. 2495-2509. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3

Joshi, M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Lowe, J. and Frame, D. (2011) Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Climate Change, 1 (8). pp. 407-412. ISSN 1758-678X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1261

Yip, S., Ferro, C. A. T., Stephenson, D. B. and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2011) A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions. Journal of Climate, 24 (17). pp. 4634-4643. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2011) Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of climate variability. Weather, 66 (7). pp. 175-179. ISSN 1477-8696 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.761

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Climate Dynamics, 37 (1-2). pp. 407-418. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Smith, R. S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7479-7778, Allison, L. C., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Woollings, T. J., Pohlmann, H. and de Cuevas, B. (2011) Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (10). L10605. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047208

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2011) Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 24 (1). pp. 109-123. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1

Ortega, P., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2011) Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM. Climate Dynamics, 37 (9-10). pp. 1771-1782. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1

Poulter, B., Hattermann, F., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Zaehle, S., Sitch, S., Restrepo-Coupe, N., Heyder , U. and Cramer, W. (2010) Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters. Global Change Biology, 16 (9). pp. 2476-2495. ISSN 1354-1013 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02157.x

Charlton-Perez, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Kinnison, D. E., Akiyoshi, H., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R., Gettelman, A., Lamarque, J. F., Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Yamashita, Y., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Marchand, M., Mancini, E., Morgenstern, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., Shibata, K., Shepherd, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Tian, W. and Waugh, D. W. (2010) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10 (19). pp. 9473-9486. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010

Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M. A., Greene, A. M., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hegerl, G., Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra, A., Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D. and Stockdale, T. (2009) Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (10). pp. 1467-1485. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90 (8). pp. 1095-1107. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. Journal of Climate, 22 (14). pp. 3960-3978. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2008) Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35 (11). L11603. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034059

Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2007) Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions. Climate Dynamics, 29 (7-8). pp. 745-762. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8

Book or Report Section

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 and Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850 (2021) IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-2. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001

Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera, J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., Vose, R. S., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Changing state of the climate system. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 287-422. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.004

Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Rao, K. A., Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Collins, W. D., Connors, S. L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Niang, A. D., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam, A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T. K., Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Tréguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X. and Zickfeld., K. (2021) Technical summary. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group. Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 33-144. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002

Arnell, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2691-4436, Qingchen, C., Ying, X., Junfeng, L., Tong, J., Guangsheng, Z., Kexiu, L., Brown, S., Challinor, A., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Koehler, A.-K., Nicholls, R., Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Rensheng, C., Xiaomin, L. and Wentao, W. (2018) Direct risks of climate change. In: UK-China Co-operation on Climate Change Risk Assessment: Developing Indicators of Climate Risk. Committee on Climate Change, London, pp. 58-97.