Accessibility navigation

Recommendations to improve the interpretation of global flood forecasts to support international humanitarian operations for tropical cyclones

Speight, L. ORCID:, Stephens, E., Hawker, L., Baugh, C., Neal, J., Cloke, H. ORCID:, Grey, S., Titley, H., Marsden, K., Sumner, T., Ficchi, A., Prudhomme, C., Archer, L., Bazo, J., Dambo, J., Dolan, S., Huhn, A. L., Moschini, F., Savage, J., Smith, A. , Towner, J. and Wanzala, M. (2023) Recommendations to improve the interpretation of global flood forecasts to support international humanitarian operations for tropical cyclones. Journal of Flood Risk Management. e12952. ISSN 1753-318X

Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.

[img] Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only


It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12952


International humanitarian organisations increasingly turn to forecast teams to support the coordination of efforts to respond to disasters caused by hazards such as tropical cyclones and large-scale fluvial floods. Such disasters often occur where there is limited local capacity or information available to support decision making and so global forecasting capacity is utilised to provide impact-based flood forecast bulletins. A multidisciplinary team joined together to provide forecast bulletins and expertise for such events through the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO). This paper captures the successes and challenges from two cyclones: Hurricane Iota in Central America (November 2020) and Cyclone Eloise in Mozambique (January 2021). Recommendations to improve global forecasting systems are made which will benefit the international community of researchers and practitioners involved in disaster prediction, anticipatory action and response. These include the requirement for additional data and expertise to support the interpretation of global models, clear documentation to support decision makers faced with multiple sources of information, and the development of user relevant metrics to assess the skill of global models. We discuss the value of effective partnerships and improving synergies between global models and local contexts, highlighting how global forecasting can help build local forecasting capability.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:113538


Downloads per month over past year

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

Page navigation