Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment-scale and large-scale climate

Lists

Tools

Koriche, S. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1285-2035, Nandini-Weiss, S. D., Prange, M., Singarayer, J. S., Arpe, K., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X, Schulz, M., Bakker, P., Leroy, S. A. G. and Coe, M. (2021) Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment-scale and large-scale climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126 (18). e2020JD034251. ISSN 2169-8996

Preview

Text (Open Access) - Published Version
· Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
· Please see our End User Agreement before downloading.
9MB

Text - Accepted Version
· Restricted to Repository staff only
3MB

Text (Supplementary information) - Supplemental Material
· Restricted to Repository staff only
5MB

It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See Guidance on citing.

To link to this item DOI: 10.1029/2020JD034251

Abstract/Summary

The Caspian Sea (CS) is the largest inland lake in the world. Large variations in sea level and surface area occurred in the past and are projected for the future. The potential impacts on regional and large-scale hydroclimate are not well understood. Here, we examine the impact of CS area on climate within its catchment and across the northern hemisphere, for the first time with a fully coupled climate model. The Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) is used to simulate the climate of four scenarios: (1) larger than present CS area, (2) current area, (3) smaller than present area, and (4) no-CS scenario. The results reveal large changes in the regional atmospheric water budget. Evaporation (E) over the sea increases with increasing area, while precipitation (P) increases over the south-west CS with increasing area. P-E over the CS catchment decreases as CS surface area increases, indicating a dominant negative lake-evaporation feedback. A larger CS reduces summer surface air temperatures and increases winter temperatures. The impacts extend eastwards, where summer precipitation is enhanced over central Asia and the north-western Pacific experiences warming with reduced winter sea ice. Our results also indicate weakening of the 500-hPa troughs over the northern Pacific with larger CS area. We find a thermal response triggers a southward shift of the upper troposphere jet stream during summer. Our findings establish that changing CS area results in climate impacts of such scope that CS area variations should be incorporated into climate model simulations, including palaeo and future scenarios. Plain Language Summary The Caspian Sea is the largest land-locked water body in the world. It is filled by rivers draining a vast region from northern Russia to Iran. The size of the Caspian Sea has varied considerably over recent centuries and millennia due to various factors, including changes in climate. Conversely, as the area of the sea changes it also has impacts on the climate, but there are significant questions about how and where those impacts would be felt. In this study we used a state-of-the-art climate model in which we specified different sizes of Caspian Sea in order to examine how the climate changes as its area increases. We observed that the local seasonal cycle of temperatures gets smaller, and evaporation increases, while there are more spatially complex changes in local rainfall. Furthermore, the impacts on atmospheric circulation occur as far as the north Pacific, with resulting increases in temperature and decreases in sea-ice coverage in winter as the Caspian area increases. The climate impacts are so significant and geographically extensive that climate models used to simulate climate change (both in future and past scenarios) should incorporate changes to the Caspian Sea area if they are to robustly model regional climate.

Item Type:	Article
Refereed:	Yes
Divisions:	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:	100109
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Caspian Sea Precipitation Evaporation CESM1.2.2 model subtropical jet
Publisher:	American Geophysical Union

Download Statistics

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

Altmetric

Funded Project

Deposit Details

References

• Amante, C., & Eakins, B. W. (2009). Etopo1 1 arc-minute global relief model: Procedures, data sources and analysis. NOAA technical memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24. National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA. • Arpe, K., & Leroy, S. A. G. (2007). The Caspian Sea level forced by the atmospheric circulation, as observed and modelled. Quaternary International, 173-174(SUPPL.), 144-152. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2007.03.008 • Arpe, K., Molavi-Arabshahi, M., & Leroy, S. A. G. (2020). Wind variability over the Caspian Sea, its impact on Caspian Sea water level and link with ENSO. International Journal of Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.6564 • Arpe, K., Tsuang, B. J., Tseng, Y. H., Liu, X. Y., & Leroy, S. A. G. (2019). Quantification of climatic feedbacks on the Caspian Sea level variability and impacts from the Caspian Sea on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(1-2), 475-488. doi: 10.1007/s00704-018-2481-x • Arslanov, K. A., Yanina, T. A., Chepalyga, A. L., Svitoch, A. A., Makshaev, R. R., Maksimov, F. E., et al. (2016). On the age of the Khvalynian deposits of the Caspian Sea coasts according to 14C and 230Th/234U methods. Quaternary International, 409, 81-87. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2015.05.067 • Beni, A. N., Lahijani, H., Harami, R. M., Arpe, K., Leroy, S. A. G., Marriner, N., et al. (2013). Caspian sea-level changes during the last millennium: Historical and geological evidence from the south Caspian Sea. Climate of the Past, 9(4), 1645-1665. doi: 10.5194/cp-9-1645-2013 • Bezrodnykh, Y., Yanina, T., Sorokin, V., & Romanyuk, B. (2020). The northern Caspian Sea: Consequences of climate change for level fluctuations during the Holocene. Quaternary International, 540, 68-77. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2019.01.041 • Broström, A., Coe, M., Harrison, S. P., Gallimore, R., Kutzbach, J. E., Foley, J., et al. (1998). Land surface feedbacks and palaeomonsoons in northern Africa. Geophysical Research Letters, 25(19), 3615-3618. doi: 10.1029/98GL02804 • Chen, D., & Chen, H. W. (2013). Using the Köppen classification to quantify climate variation and change: An example for 1901-2010. Environmental Development, 6(1), 69-79. doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2013.03.007 • Chen, J. L., Pekker, T., Wilson, C. R., Tapley, B. D., Kostianoy, A. G., Cretaux, J. F., et al. (2017). Long-term Caspian Sea level change. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(13), 6993-7001. doi: 10.1002/2017GL073958 • Coe, M. T. (1998). A linked global model of terrestrial hydrologic processes: Simulation of modern rivers, lakes, and wetlands. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 103(D8), 8885-8899. doi: 10.1029/98JD00347 • Coe, M. T. (2000). Modeling terrestrial hydrological systems at the continental scale: Testing the accuracy of an atmospheric GCM. Journal of Climate, 13(4), 686-704. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0686:MTHSAT>2.0.CO;2 • Coe, M. T., & Bonan, G. B. (1997). Feedbacks between climate and surface water in northern Africa during the middle Holocene. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 102(10), 11087-11101. doi: 10.1029/97jd00343 • Contoux, C., Jost, A., Ramstein, G., Sepulchre, P., Krinner, G., & Schuster, M. (2013). Megalake chad impact on climate and vegetation during the late Pliocene and the mid-Holocene. Climate of the Past, 9(4), 1417-1430. doi: 10.5194/cp-9-1417-2013 • Dyakonov, G.S., & Ibrayev, R.A., 2019. Long-term evolution of Caspian Sea thermohaline properties reconstructed in an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model. Ocean Sci. 15, 527-541. • Forte, A. M., & Cowgill, E. (2013). Late Cenozoic base-level variations of the Caspian Sea: A review of its history and proposed driving mechanisms. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 386, 392-407. doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2013.05.035 • Hoskins, B. J., & Karoly, D. J. (1981). The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 38(6), 1179-1196. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1179:TSLROA>2.0.CO;2 • Hurrell, J. W., Holland, M. M., Gent, P. R., Ghan, S., Kay, J. E., Kushner, P. J., et al. (2013). The Community Earth System Model: A framework for collaborative research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94(9), 1339-1360. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1 • Kakroodi, A. A., Kroonenberg, S. B., Goorabi, A., & Yamani, M. (2014). Shoreline response to rapid 20th century sea-level change along the Iranian Caspian coast. Journal of Coastal Research, 30(6), 1243-1250. doi: 10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00173.1 • Kakroodi, A. A., Leroy, S. A. G., Kroonenberg, S. B., Lahijani, H. A. K., Alimohammadian, H., Boomer, I., et al. (2015). Late Pleistocene and Holocene sea-level change and coastal paleoenvironment evolution along the Iranian Caspian shore. Marine Geology, 361, 111-125. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2014.12.007 • Kislov, A. V., Panin, A. V., & Toropov, P. A. (2014). Present-day variations and paleodynamics of the Caspian Sea level as a standard for climate modeling data verification. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 39(5), 328-334. doi: 10.3103/S1068373914050069 • Komijani, F., Chegini, V., & Siadatmousavi, S. M. (2019). Seasonal variability of circulation and air-sea interaction in the Caspian Sea based on a high resolution circulation model. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 45(6), 1113-1129. • Koriche, S. A., Singarayer, J. S., & Cloke, H. L. (2021). The fate of the caspian sea under projected climate change and water extraction during the 21st century. Environmental Research Letters, 16(9). doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1af5 • Krijgsman, W., Tesakov, A., Yanina, T., Lazarev, S., Danukalova, G., Van Baak, C. G. C., et al. (2019). Quaternary time scales for the Pontocaspian domain: Interbasinal connectivity and faunal evolution. Earth-Science Reviews, 188, 1-40. doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.10.013 • Kroonenberg, S. B., Kasimov, N. S., & Lychagin, M. Y. (2008). The Caspian Sea, a natural laboratory for sea-level change. Geography, environment, sustainability, 1(1), 22-37. • Leroy, S. A. G., Lahijani, H. A. K., Crétaux, J.-F., Aladin, N. V., & Plotnikov, I. S. (2020). Past and current changes in the largest lake of the world: The caspian sea. In S. Mischke (Ed.), Large asian lakes in a changing world: Natural state and human impact (pp. 65-107). Cham: Springer International Publishing. • Lodh, A. (2015). Impact of Caspian Sea drying on Indian monsoon precipitation and temperature as simulated by RegCM4 model. Hydrology Current Research, 6(217). doi: 10.4172/2157-7587.1000217 • Lofgren, B. M. (1997). Simulated effects of idealized Laurentian Great Lakes on regional and large-scale climate. Journal of Climate, 10(11), 2847-2858. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2847:SEOILG>2.0.CO;2 • Molavi-Arabshahi, M., Arpe, K., & Leroy, S. A. G. (2016). Precipitation and temperature of the southwest Caspian Sea region during the last 55 years: Their trends and teleconnections with large-scale atmospheric phenomena. International Journal of Climatology, 36(5), 2156-2172. doi: 10.1002/joc.4483 • Nandini-Weiss, S. D., Prange, M., Arpe, K., Merkel, U., & Schulz, M. (2020). Past and future impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in the Caspian Sea catchment area. International Journal of Climatology, 40(5), 2717-2731. doi: 10.1002/joc.6362 • Nicholls, J. F., & Toumi, R. (2014). On the lake effects of the Caspian Sea. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140(681), 1399-1408. doi: 10.1002/qj.2222 • Notaro, M., Holman, K., Zarrin, A., Fluck, E., Vavrus, S., & Bennington, V. (2013). Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on regional climate. Journal of Climate, 26(3), 789-804. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00140.1 • Peixoto, J. P., & Oort, A. H. (1992). Physics of climate. College Park, United States: American Institute of Physics. • Rodionov, S. N. (1994). Global and regional climate interaction: The Caspian Sea experience. Dordrecht: Springer Science+Business Media, B.V. • Sousa, P. M., Ramos, A. M., Raible, C. C., Messmer, M., Tomé, R., Pinto, J. G., et al. (2020). North Atlantic integrated water vapor transport—from 850 to 2100 CE: Impacts on western European rainfall. Journal of Climate, 33(1), 263-279. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0348.1 • Sousounis, P. J., & Fritsch, J. M. (1994). Lake-aggregate mesoscale disturbances. Part II: A case study of the effects on regional and synoptic-scale weather systems. Bulletin - American Meteorological Society, 75(10), 1793-1811. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1994)075<1793:LAMDPI>2.0.CO;2 • Tamura-Wicks, H., Toumi, R. and Budgell, W.P. (2015), Sensitivity of Caspian sea-ice to air temperature. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141: 3088-3096. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2592 • Tsuang, B. J., Tu, C. Y., & Arpe, K. (2001). Lake parameterization for climate models. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 316. • Valiantzas, J. D. (2006). Simplified versions for the penman evaporation equation using routine weather data. Journal of Hydrology, 331(3), 690-702. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.06.012 • Yanina, T., Bolikhovskaya, N., Sorokin, V., Romanyuk, B., Berdnikova, A., & Tkach, N. (2020). Paleogeography of the Atelian regression in the Caspian Sea (based on drilling data). Quaternary International. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2020.07.023 • Yanina, T. A. (2014). The Ponto-caspian region: Environmental consequences of climate change during the late Pleistocene. Quaternary International, 345, 88-99. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2014.01.045

University Staff: Request a correction | Centaur Editors: Update this record

University of Reading

CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading

Accessibility navigation

Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment-scale and large-scale climate

Abstract/Summary

Downloads

Page navigation

See also

Footer navigation