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Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

Gambhir, A. ORCID:, George, M. ORCID:, McJeon, H. ORCID:, Arnell, N. W. ORCID:, Bernie, D. ORCID:, Mittal, S. ORCID:, Köberle, A. C. ORCID:, Lowe, J., Rogelj, J. ORCID: and Monteith, S. (2022) Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Nature Climate Change, 12. pp. 88-96. ISSN 1758-678X

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01236-x


Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures, and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy. Here we present an integrated framework to explore near term (to 2030) transition risks and longer term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5-4oC levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2oC target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
ID Code:101855
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group


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