Abstract/Summary

The last decades witnessed an increase in Arctic offshore operations,partly driven by rising energy needs and partly due to easing of sea ice conditions and improved accessibility of shipping routes. The study examines changes in sea ice and ocean conditions in the Arctic with their implications for off-shore safety. The objective of the research is to develop a basis for forecasting technologies for maritime operations.We assess loads on off-shore structures from sea ice and ocean in centennial climate future projections and implications for the accessibility and future Arctic shipping. As a test case, we calculate loads on a tubular structure of 100-m wide and 20-m tall, similar to installations in the Beaufort Sea in the 1980s. With sea ice retreating, loads are predicted to increase from ~0.1   106 N (MN) at present to ~50–200 MN in the 2090s, primarily due to wave loads. This study asserts the need for new approaches in forecasting to make marine operations in the Arctic safer.