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Predicting the occurrence of construction disputes using machine learning techniques

Ayhan, M., Dikmen, I. ORCID: and Birgonul, M. T. (2021) Predicting the occurrence of construction disputes using machine learning techniques. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147 (4). ISSN 1943-7862

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To link to this item DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002027


Construction industry is overwhelmed by increasing number and severity of disputes. The primary objective of this research is to predict the occurrence of disputes by utilizing machine learning (ML) techniques on empirical data. For this reason, variables affecting dispute occurrence were identified from the literature and a conceptual model was developed to depict the common factors. Based on the conceptual model, a questionnaire was designed to collect empirical data from experts. Chi-square tests were conducted to reveal the associations between input variables and dispute occurrence. Alternative classification techniques were tested, and support vector machines (SVM) classifier achieved the best average accuracy (90.46%). Ensemble classifiers combining the tested classification techniques were developed for enhanced prediction performance. Experimental results showed that the best ensemble classifier, obtained from majority voting technique, can achieve 91.11% average accuracy. Based on Chi-square tests, the most influential factors on dispute occurrence were found as variations and unexpected events in projects. Other important predictors were all related to skills of the parties involved. This study contributes to the construction dispute domain in three ways (1) by proposing a conceptual model that combined the diverse efforts in the literature for identifying variables affecting dispute occurrence, (2) by highlighting the influential factors such as response rate and communication skills as indicators for potential disputes, (3) by providing an empirical ML-based model with enhanced prediction capabilities that can function as an early-warning mechanism for decision-makers.

Item Type:Article
Divisions:Science > School of the Built Environment > Construction Management and Engineering
ID Code:105945
Publisher:American Society of Civil Engineers


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