Abstract/Summary

We investigate ocean circulation changes through the lens of data assimilation using a reduced-order model. Our primary interest lies in the Stommel box model, which reveals itself to be one of the most practicable models that has the ability of reproducing the meridional overturning circulation. The Stommel box model has at most two regimes: TH (temperature driven circulation with sinking near the north pole) and SA (salinity driven with sinking near the equator). Currently, the meridional overturning is in the TH regime. Using box-averaged Met Office EN4 ocean temperature and salinity data, our goal is to provide a probability that a future regime change occurs and establish how this probability depends on the uncertainties in initial conditions, parameters, and forcings. We will achieve this using data assimilation tools and DAPPER within the Stommel box model with fast oscillatory regimes.