Abstract/Summary

Aviation, as a critical component of the global transportation infrastructure, has experienced substantial growth over the past few decades, facilitating the movement of people and goods. However, this sector is also a significant consumer of fossil fuels and contributor to global warming. In this study, we estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from global aviation for the period Jan 2019-June 2024 using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data. We estimate that a yearly total of 42 millions of flights were responsible for 895 Mt of CO2 emissions in 2019. Flight disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have decreased emissions in 2020-2023, but the recovery has been quick: the number of domestic flights in 2023 has surpassed its pre-Covid level while international flights are slightly lagging behind. This results in CO2 emissions in 2023 that are still 9% below their pre- Covid levels. However, traffic and emissions levels calculated for 2024 indicate a return to pre-Covid levels. Our analysis indicates that North America, Europe and Asia account for almost 75% of the aviation CO2 emissions. Flights shorter than 2600 km are responsible for 50% of the aviation CO2 emissions worldwide. Flights longer than this distance account for the other half of emissions althouh they represent less than 15% of the total number of flights. The most recent generation of aircraft represented 20% of the fleet at the start of 2024, resulting in a 8% gain in efficiency, equivalent to 144 Mt CO2 avoided over the whole period. However, the ongoing growth in traffic delays the fleet renewal and hinders the reduction in emissions. Aviation does not appear to be on track to reach a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. Additionally, if sustainable aviation fuels are to be used, this will require a substantial increase in biomass or low-carbon electricity use.