Abstract/Summary

The research focus is on understanding the impact of complexity on the planning of construction projects at the post-contract award stage prior to work commencing on site. Complexity is the state of something having many parts that makes it difficult to understand the interactions and impact when devising a plan. Understanding the complexity of a construction project, especially at the pre-production stage of the project management life cycle is challenging because of uncertainty and risk. Several small and large projects are failed because of a lack of data, information, and knowledge of project complexity. Current planning tools and techniques are deterministic in nature (Gantt chart, CPM, PERT) assumptions and estimates are made, whilst applying little probability of completion for each task. Every project embodies assumptions and influences and should start with a complete set of clearly defined goals and constraints that remain constant throughout the duration of the project. Projects are not fully designed at the outset because of the nature of the construction process with many uncontrollable issues. Construction planners continue to apply the traditional methods and tools of “hard” project management that were developed for “ideal projects”, neglecting the potential influence of complexity on the design and construction process. Understanding the concept of project complexity is not new, but it has increased in importance. There is not a unique definition for the term of project complexity, consequently this makes quantification and measurement more difficult. Project complexity originates from different sources of environment, technical, and workflow interactions. They can be divided into two categories of complexity factors, firstly, project tasks, and secondly, project organisation and management. Project tasks may originate from performance, lack of resources or environment changes for a specific task. Complexity factors that relate to organisation and management refers to workflow and interdependence of different parts. Complexity is found as the basis of shortcoming that traditional tools and techniques were not being able reflect it in the calculations for expectations. However, the impact of the complexity on expectations for the total project duration at the pre-plan stage is not known which is remarked in this research. This research investigated the emergence and growth of complexity on project scheduling and provides a model to consider the influence of complexity on the total project duration at the post contract award pre-construction stage of the project. Therefore, this research focus in on understanding the fundamental causes of complexity on construction projects and understand how it might be possible to consider complexity in expectation. The investigation is supported by using different technique to gather the view of experts and measure the weight of each defined factor in the proposed model. The results were used to develop a model that considers the core complexity factors and their interactions. A linear regression analysis used to define the direction of those interrelated factors. System dynamics used to model and consider the influence of complexity on the expectations for project scheduling at pre-plan stage. Feedback from experts revealed 20 major complexity factors that impact project planning. The factors are divided into 5 categories known as core complexity factors. To understand the weight of each factor in comparison, AHP analysis method is used. The comparison shows that externalities is ranked as the highest influence across the complexity factors. The research underlines that there are many internal and external factors that impact project activities and the project overall. Despite the focus of previous research on considering complexity and optimisation for each individual task, this research shows the importance of considering the influence of complexity on the project master plan undertaken at the post contract award pre-construction phase of a project.