Abstract/Summary

Critical infrastructure, such as telecommunications networks and hospitals, are typically required to have reserve power systems in place, mitigating power transmission failures. Energy consumption is often highly sensitive to weather conditions and seasonal variation. This thesis demonstrates how weather and climate information can support the efficient design and operation of reserve power systems, and the potential leverage of “surplus” reserve capacity to support the wider electricity network. First, the weather sensitivity of infrastructure electricity load is characterised for a case study of GB telecommunications assets, with energy consumption well characterised in terms of Heating Degree Day and Cooling Degree Day demand. Having established a temperature-driven model of infrastructure electricity load, a framework for risk-sensitive system design is applied to re-analysis records of temperature to assess the weather and climate resilient design levels for reserve capacity. For GB-aggregate telecommunications assets, the summer peak in energy demand determines the reserve capacity installation requirement, whilst lower levels of energy consumption outside this period result in surplus capacity beyond what is required to maintain operations for the same length of time. This surplus capacity has the capability to support the wider grid during periods of stress. In a second research chapter, the impact of a changing physical climate on the design and operation of reserve systems is assessed using data from the UK Climate Projections datasets. Focussing on the GB-aggregate telecommunications case study, an application of the Quantile Delta Mapping bias adjustment on climate models improves estimates of long-term variability and climate impact to modelled infrastructure electricity load. With this approach, simulation of climate-risk in models better represents regional internal variability than the limited sample of re-analysis observations, and using future projections shows that further increases to installed capacity are necessary to maintain the tolerated level of risk in reserve systems. Lastly, introducing models of GB national electricity generation capacity and demand alongside the models of infrastructure electricity load, the potential value of surplus capacity is estimated from the perspective of both the wider grid and the asset owner. Using surplus capacity to support the grid presents a win-win situation, with the Transmission System Operator able to benefit from low-cost capacity to improve system adequacy, and the reserve owner benefiting from new revenue streams for the services provided. This thesis addresses rethinking the purpose of reserve power systems (currently used or planned) to protect infrastructure. Design decisions can be supported using re-analysis and climate model datasets in a framework for efficient decision-making that represents the underlying weather- and climate-risk. Whilst results relate to the specific case study of GB telecommunications assets, qualitatively similar behaviours are expected in other infrastructure with large backup requirements, including hospitals and data centres (the latter representing a rapidly growing global share of energy consumption), making this research more widely relevant. With investment into battery energy storage already approaching a break-even point, dual purpose ‘surplus’ reserves could simultaneously benefit reserve owners (by offsetting the cost of reserve systems through new revenue streams) and can support the energy sector transition to highly-renewable energy supply by providing balancing services to the grid. Beyond the immediate scope of this research, these findings demonstrate the utility of weather and climate information in decision-making. The author has applied a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence to the original content of this work.