Reduced winter‐time clear air turbulence in the Trans‐Atlantic region under stratospheric aerosol injection

Barnes, K. L., Jones, A. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3894-2867, Williams, P. D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9713-9820 and Haywood, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2143-6634 (2025) Reduced winter‐time clear air turbulence in the Trans‐Atlantic region under stratospheric aerosol injection. Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (8). e2024GL113627. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2024GL113627

Abstract/Summary

Clear air turbulence (CAT) is a safety threat within the aviation sector and is projected to worsen under global warming. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a climate intervention strategy that aims to ameliorate climate change by artificially cooling Earth. Climate model simulations have found a side-effect of SAI would be a strengthening of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This links to a stronger North Atlantic jet stream and suggests enhanced CAT in the region. Here, we analyze simulations from the UKESM1 climate model to evaluate the impact of a realistic SAI application on winter-time trans-Atlantic CAT. We find a 23% decrease in severe CAT frequency under SAI when compared to a baseline high-end global warming scenario. Our results indicate that the amelioration of global warming under SAI has a more dominant impact on CAT over the North Atlantic than residual impacts to the NAO.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/122547
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2024GL113627
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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