Abstract/Summary

With the intensification of global climate change, the frequent occurrence of typhoon disaster events has become a great challenge to the sustainable development of cities around the world; thus, it is of great significance to carry out the assessment of typhoon-directed economic losses. Typhoon disaster loss assessment faces key challenges, including complex regional environments, scarce historical data, difficulties in multi-source heterogeneous data fusion, and challenges in quantifying assessment uncertainties. Meanwhile, existing studies often overlook the complex relationship between the spatial expansion of urban and rural construction (SEURC) and typhoon disaster losses, particularly their differential manifestations across different regions and disaster intensities. To address these issues, this study proposes CLPFT (Comprehensive Uncertainty Assessment Framework for Typhoon), an innovative assessment framework integrating prototype learning and uncertainty quantification through a UProtoMLP neural network. Results demonstrate three key findings: (1) By introducing prototype learning, a meta-learning approach, to guide model updates, we achieved precise assessments with small training samples, attaining an MAE of 1.02, representing 58.5–76.1% error reduction compared to conventional machine learning algorithms. This reveals that implicitly classifying typhoon disaster loss types through prototype learning can significantly improve assessment accuracy in data-scarce scenarios. (2) By designing a dual-path uncertainty quantification mechanism, we realized high-reliability risk assessment, with 95.45% of actual loss values falling within predicted confidence intervals (theoretical expectation: 95%). This demonstrates that the dual-path uncertainty quantification mechanism can provide statistically credible risk boundaries for disaster prevention decisions, significantly enhancing the practical utility of assessment results. (3) Further investigation through controlling dynamic assessment factors revealed significant regional heterogeneity in the relationship between SEURC and directed economic losses. Furthermore, the study found that when typhoon intensity reaches a critical value, the relationship shifts from negative to positive correlation. This indicates that typhoon disaster loss assessment should consider the interaction between urban resilience and typhoon intensity, providing important implications for disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. This paper provides a more comprehensive and accurate assessment method for evaluating typhoon disaster-directed economic losses and offers a scientific reference for determining the influencing factors of typhoon-directed economic loss assessments.