Decreasing importance of carbon-climate feedbacks in the Southern Ocean in a warming climate

Jarníková, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5105-3343, Le Quéré, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2319-0452, Rumbold, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-4541 and Jones, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7221-8127 (2025) Decreasing importance of carbon-climate feedbacks in the Southern Ocean in a warming climate. Science Advances, 11 (20). eadr3589. ISSN 2375-2548 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adr3589

Abstract/Summary

The Southern Ocean is an important CO2 sink, mitigating climate change, but its future evolution is uncertain due to the confounding effects of stratospheric ozone recovery and climate change on ocean circulation. Using an Earth System Model, we quantify the relative influence of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gas emissions on this sink from 1950 to 2100. Ozone effects dominated changes in ocean circulation during 1950–2000, but not this century, implying that past trends cannot serve as proxies for future changes. Despite substantial future circulation changes induced by climate change, their effect on the CO 2 sink decreases over the 21st century because of compensating factors. Thus, the Southern Ocean is unlikely to be a major future source of amplifying carbon-climate feedbacks this century.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/122980
Identification Number/DOI	10.1126/sciadv.adr3589
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS
Publisher	American Association for the Advancement of Science
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