Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 (2025) Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 236. 107097. ISSN 2328-7616 doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107097

Abstract/Summary

Past analyses of surveys of professional forecasters’ histogram and point forecasts indicate that the two are not always consistent. The point forecasts are either systematically higher or lower than the corresponding histogram means, depending on whether we consider inflation or GDP growth. We consider whether inconsistencies are related to delayed updating of the histogram forecasts, or to the reaction of the two types of forecasts to new information, and whether inconsistent pairs typically imply less accurate point or histogram forecasts. We also re-consider explanations related to the complexity of the task on an extended dataset.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/123156
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107097
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Henley Business School > Finance and Accounting
Publisher	Elsevier
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