Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: connections with stratospheric variations

Agel, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1399-3473, Cohen, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7762-4482, Barlow, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7612-3811, Pfeiffer, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0658-9701, Francis, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7358-9296, Garfinkel, C. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7258-666X and Kretchmer, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2756-9526 (2025) Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: connections with stratospheric variations. Science Advances, 11 (28). eadq9557. ISSN 2375-2548 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adq9557

Abstract/Summary

Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere extreme cold events continue to occur despite overall winter warming trends. These events have been linked to weakened stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) states. In this study, we analyze both the upper and lower polar stratosphere for links to extreme winter cold and snow in the continental US, finding two SPV variations of interest. The first features an upper-level vortex displaced toward western Canada and linked to northwestern US severe winter weather. The second features a weakened upper-level vortex displaced toward the North Atlantic and linked to central-eastern US severe winter weather. Both variations feature lower-level stretched vortices and stratospheric wave reflection. Since 2015, a northwestward shift in severe winter weather across the US is concurrent with an increase in the frequency of the westward-focused variation relative to the eastward-focused variation and a shift to more negative phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/123645
Identification Number/DOI	10.1126/sciadv.adq9557
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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